\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
Event overview
The company disclosed that in the annual report of 2021, the company's revenue was 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%.
Electricity price increases drive up costs, and the company's profits are blocked in the short term
Benefiting from the prosperity of photovoltaic and new energy industries, the company achieved an income of 3.55 billion yuan in 21 years, of which Q4 achieved an income of 970 million yuan, all of which set a historical record. The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 435 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; The annual gross profit margin of the company is 25.93%, of which the gross profit margin of Q4 is 22.43%. Among them, the main cost of aluminizing capacitor is composed of basic materials such as electrode foil. At the same time, the manufacturing of electrode foil needs to consume a lot of power. Therefore, the company's profit is affected due to the obvious rise of Q3 electricity price in 21 years..
New energy drives strong downstream demand and is optimistic about the development of the company for a long time
The capacitor is the core foundation of the inverter. In the inverters of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, DC-link bus capacitor needs to be widely used on the DC side, followed by filter capacitor in AC measurement. Among them, DC bus capacitor is the most used, accounting for about 70% - 80% of the total capacitance. In photovoltaic and other fields, bus capacitance requires a large number of aluminized capacitors. According to the prediction of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), by 2050, the global photovoltaic penetration rate will reach 25%, equivalent to 10 times of the current rate. According to solarpower Europe's prediction, the new installed capacity of the global photovoltaic market will reach 346.7gw in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 15% from 2021 to 2025. China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's photovoltaic industry will increase by 70-90gw annually during the 14th five year plan. According to the data forecast of the national renewable energy center, the annual new installed capacity of China's photovoltaic market will increase significantly in the medium and long term. At that time, the demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors will be further increased. At the same time, in the field of new energy vehicles, electronic applications such as automatic driving and intelligent cockpit are gradually increasing, and its demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors will be further improved.
The company's product layout is perfect and fully benefits from the large volume of downstream market
The company began to develop aluminum electrolytic capacitors in 1970. It has the core production technology of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, leading product quality, cost advantage and high-quality customer resources, and seizes high-quality downstream tracks such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic.
The company extends the industrial chain backward to achieve controllable supply of raw materials. Electrode foil accounts for 60% - 70% of the production cost of aluminum electrolytic capacitor. In 2021, the production and sales volume of chemical foil of the company was about 18.8 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%.
Since 2011, the company has planned the thin film capacitor business and established xinjianghai power; In 2016, it acquired 100% equity of YOUPU electronics; In 2018, Haimei Electronics was established in cooperation with Jimei. Relying on Jimei and Jianghai brands and channels, we have actively explored the market of vehicle mounted thin film capacitors, which have been tested and identified by many users and sold in batches. In 2021, the revenue of thin film capacitors was 224 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.33%. The company has vigorously promoted the industrialization of self-developed supercapacitors by means of technology transfer, equity acquisition of upstream enterprises and fixed increase fund-raising. EDLC and LIC are arranged in two lines. At present, the product series is complete and has certain technical advantages. It has been applied in batch in the fields of wind power, rail transit, new energy passenger cars, industry and so on. In 2021, super capacitor brought 240 million yuan of operating revenue to the company, and wind power is the largest source of revenue among the company's super capacitor products.
Investment advice
According to the company's production capacity and new energy demand, we maintain the company's operating revenue of RMB 4.818 billion and 5.915 billion from 2022 to 2023, and the company's operating revenue is expected to be RMB 7.045 billion in 2024. However, considering the cost end aluminum price and electricity price, we reduce the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 614797 million to RMB 595781 million from 2022 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.046 billion, Reduce the EPS from 2022 to 2023 by 0.74/0.97 yuan to 0.72/0.94 yuan. It is estimated that the EPS in 2024 will be 1.26 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 21.52 yuan on March 25, 2022, and the PE will be 33x, 25X and 19x respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The rise of aluminum price drives the rise of electrode foil price; The price rise of power coal leads to the rise of electricity price, and finally drives the price rise of electrode foil; The rise in oil prices drives the rise in the prices of other raw materials; Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The demand for electric vehicles is lower than expected
