\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 808 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 29.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.41%; 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 9.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.12%, a month on month increase of 30.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 307.7% and a month on month decrease of 274.99%.
Comments:
The risk of short-term asset impairment is released, and the expenses during the period are well controlled. As the global epidemic continues and the international oil and gas industry fluctuates, the utilization rate and operating price of some large equipment of the company have not yet returned to the normal use level, and there are signs of impairment, with a provision of 2.011 billion yuan. The oil price center moves upward, the industry ushers in prosperity, and the short-term impairment risk is released. In terms of period expenses, the total period expense rate of the company in 2021 was 8.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.1%, unchanged year-on-year; The rate of administrative expenses (including R & D expenses and comparable caliber) was 5.77%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.85pct; The financial expense ratio was 2.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.36pct. Under the guidance of the five strategies of “technology driven, cost leading, integration, internationalization and regional development”, the company has well controlled costs, increased R & D investment, well controlled period expenses, deepened cost reduction, improved quality and efficiency.
The utilization rate of drilling platform is repaired quarterly, and the prosperity of oil service industry continues to rise. In the first half of 2021, although the international oil price rebounded, on the one hand, due to the uncertainty caused by the continuous impact of the epidemic, on the other hand, due to the consistent lag of exploration and development investment of oil and gas companies and the slow recovery of oil service market, the start of operation was delayed, resulting in a certain decline in the operation volume and utilization rate of drilling platform year-on-year. In the third quarter, with the crude oil price breaking through the $80 / barrel mark, global energy prices remained high, and oil and gas exploitation activities outside China were active quarter by quarter. Throughout the year, the company’s drilling service days (year-on-year) were 14082 days (- 3.3%), including 11383 days (- 0.4%) for jack up service and 2699 days (- 14.1.5%) for semi submersible service; The utilization rate of drilling service calendar days is 69.1% (- 2.5pct), of which the utilization rate of jack up calendar days is 73.3% (- 1.7pct) and that of semi submersible calendar days is 55.5% (- 5.8pct); Q4 in a single quarter, the company’s drilling service days (month on month) were 3997 days (+ 14.0%), including 3265 days (15.7%) for jack up service and 732 days (6.9%) for semi submersible service; The utilization rate of drilling service calendar days is 78.67% (9.1pct), of which the utilization rate of jack up calendar days is 84.33% (+ 11.0pct) and that of semi submersible calendar days is 60.4% (+ 2.8pct); In the international market, according to his data, the global oil and gas capital expenditure will increase by 25% year-on-year in 2022. Recently, the oil service industry has accelerated its recovery. According to riglogix data, the daily cost of global drilling platform has recovered in varying degrees in 2022q1 (as of February), and the daily cost of jack up platform IC 250’wd with the highest increase has recovered to USD 57000, a month on month increase of + 12.7%, The daily cost of 1500 ‘- 5000’ WD of semi submersible platform with the highest increase recovered to US $349000, a month on month increase of + 16.9%. By the end of 2021, the company had operated and managed 57 platforms (including 43 jack up drilling platforms and 14 semi submersible drilling platforms). With the recovery of the global oil service industry and the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of drilling platforms, the daily cost of drilling platforms has upward momentum, and the company is expected to fully benefit or bring greater performance flexibility.
CNOOC capex may help improve the profitability of oil technology services. According to the announcement of CNOOC (00883), in 2022, capex will be 90-100 billion yuan, the exploration proportion will be increased from 17% to 20%, the development link will be reduced from 61% to 57%, the production link will be increased from 20% to 21%, the others will be maintained at 2%, and the proportion of China’s output will be increased by 1% to 69%; Although the overall target is the same as last year, the strategy of focusing on exploration and China is more conducive to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) . Since the seven-year action plan was put forward by CNOOC, capex has a high performance rate, and nearly 90% of the company’s oil price transactions come from CNOOC, which is expected to benefit fully. In addition, with the rise of the oil price center, oil companies’ willingness to exploit oil fields with high cost and difficult exploitation has increased, and the coverage of high-value services such as high-temperature and high-pressure equipment, formation testing and large-diameter sidewall coring is expected to increase; At the same time, the company continues to increase R & D investment and promote the application of self-developed equipment in the Chinese market. With the large-scale commercial escool high temperature and high pressure equipment, formation testing, large-diameter sidewall coring and other high-value technical products, the gross profit margin of the sector is expected to continue to increase.
Risk tips: the risk of oil price fluctuation, the risk that CNOOC’s capital expenditure is less than expected, and the risk of sharp decline in the daily cost of drilling platform.
Profit forecast: considering the gradual recovery of industry demand, we raised the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.646 billion yuan (formerly 3.414 billion yuan), 4.408 billion yuan (formerly 4.201 billion yuan) and 4.856 billion yuan (newly added) respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
