\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 132 Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) )
Core conclusion
It is expected to become the second high-quality supplier of traditional metal line. From 2015 to 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company continued to grow, with CArG reaching 25%. Since the beginning of 21 years, the company's diamond line business has continued to develop, with the production capacity reaching more than 30 million kilometers in 22e from about 16.5 million kilometers in 21 years, and the long-term production capacity is expected to reach more than 46 million kilometers, which is expected to accelerate the catch-up with leading suppliers, and the market share is expected to increase to 20% or more. "Self research and self-made of the whole line" + "single machine 8 ~ 11 lines" technology is leading, and the gross profit margin of diamond line in 22 years is expected to reach more than 40%. The company gives full play to the drawing technology accumulated in the field of traditional metal products, and the product line diameter is about 40 ~ 50 μ M gradually increased to 40 μ Below M. Superimposed with the advantages of "wire rod finished product" equipment, the unit cost of diamond line is expected to accelerate the decline, and we expect the profitability of diamond line to accelerate the improvement. As of H1 of the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company's diamond line products has exceeded 30%. We expect that it will increase to more than 40% in 22 years, and the gap with leading suppliers is expected to narrow.
King Kong line is expected to further open the market. By the end of 20 years, the proportion of sales of the company's top five customers was 4.67% / 3.97% / 2.80% / 2.72% / 2.38%. In the future, the company will further expand its customer capacity and further deepen its cooperation with high-quality photovoltaic suppliers such as Zhonghuan, Gaojing, GCL, Jingke, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and so on.
Organic silicon has obvious cost advantage and is expected to bring marginal increment of performance. In 2018, the company Inner Mongolia Xingxing Chemical Co., Ltd. started the project to build methanol and industrial silicon powder to synthesize silicone. The plant environmental impact assessment has been completed. By February 2022, the company has started production. We expect the set capacity of DMC silicone polymer to reach 120000 tons in 2022.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 167 / 785 / 1127 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 36.4% / + 370.9% / + 43.5%. The corresponding EPS is 0.12/0.56/0.80 yuan. Give the company 28 times PE for diamond line business, 8 times PE for metal products business and 8 times PE for silicone business in 22 years, with a target price of 7.56 yuan, and give a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the prosperity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the market competition intensifies
