\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021 and achieved a revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.4%; At the same time, it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
The proportion of high-end continues to increase, and 97 pure raw materials are in rapid volume. In terms of grades, the company’s high-end beer revenue reached 2.51 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; The revenue of mid-range beer was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; Volkswagen beer achieved a revenue of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%. From the perspective of year-on-year growth, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 44.9% in the sales volume of high-end draft beer, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.79% in the sales volume of pure draft beer, accounting for 2.79% in the split volume of the industry; Among them, 97 black gold pure raw materials still continued the high-speed growth trend, realizing sales of 157000 tons, doubling year-on-year growth. In terms of price, the annual ton price of the company decreased slightly by 0.5% year-on-year to 3369 yuan / ton. With the continuous increase in the proportion of pure raw products, the pressure on the ton price is mainly due to more discounts given by the company when promoting high-end beer. In terms of canning rate, the canning rate of the company increased by 0.8pp to 32.2% year-on-year, and the canning rate still maintained the first level in the industry. The company has a firm step in promoting the upgrading of product structure. It is expected that 97 pure students will account for more than 40% of the overall pure students next year, driving the further improvement of the company’s profitability.
Raw material costs continued to rise, efficiency improved and real estate disposal thickened profits. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 45%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2pp, of which the gross profit margin of Q4 in a single quarter was 26%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7pp. Since 21h2, affected by the continuous rise in the prices of key raw materials such as barley and packaging materials, the overall cost side of the industry has been under pressure. Moreover, due to the fact that liquor enterprises generally adopt price locking in advance to avoid the fluctuation of raw material prices and the weak demand for beer in the off-season, the cost pressure is mainly reflected in 21q4. In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio was 15.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2PP, mainly due to the reduction of expense investment in the current period; The management expense ratio remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pp to 7.8%. In 21 years, the company received land expropriation compensation from Zhongshan zhubeer and realized asset disposal income of 56 million yuan. Under the continuous pressure on the cost side, the product structure continued to be optimized, resulting in the company’s overall net profit margin remained stable throughout the year, with a slight increase of 0.03pp to 13.8% year-on-year.
Structural upgrading is steady, and management improves quality and efficiency in an all-round way. At present, the high-end transformation of the beer industry has entered a period of accelerated dividend release, and the mainstream price belt in Guangdong Province is gradually changing from 6 yuan to 8 yuan. Relying on the good consumer base and the first market share in Guangdong Province, the company has gradually strengthened the replacement of zero with pure life, and there is still broad space for structural upgrading. The company strengthened the reform of internal management, promoted the reform of manufacturer led in-depth distribution mode by “one district and one policy” in each region, and further improved the control of channels in the province. As the company continues to promote structural upgrading and layout of beer culture industry, the company’s performance is expected to maintain steady growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.31 yuan, 0.35 yuan and 0.40 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 25 times, 22 times and 19 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, covid-19 epidemic repeated risk, high-end competition intensified risk.
