\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 96 Rianlon Corporation(300596) )
Polymer anti-aging additives tap into the lube additives market, maintain "buy" rating
The company is China's polymer anti-aging additives leading, with capacity expansion to expand market share, the existing antioxidants and light stabilizer production capacity of 3.49, 21 thousand and 700 tons, from 2022, Zhuhai 60 thousand tons of antioxidant production capacity will be gradually released. The company actively creates the second growth curve of lubricating oil additives, and the future growth path is clear. Without considering the consolidation of Kangtai shares for the time being, we raised the profit forecast for 20222023 and added 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 529 (original value of 5.06), 658 (original value of 601) and 817 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 258 (original value of 2.47), 321 (original value of 2.93) and 3.98 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to 17.5, 14.1 and 11.4 times of PE. We are optimistic that the company will take M & A integration, project construction and technological innovation as the three driving wheels to build a world leading fine chemical platform company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Foreign capital dominates the 100 billion market of lubricating oil additives, and there is a strong demand for local supporting single agent
On the supply side, the four major international additive companies Lubrizol, runyinglian, Chevron olennaise and yafuton have occupied 85% of the global market share for a long time, mainly selling compound agents; China's single agent supply is becoming more and more mature. China's first tier enterprises represented by Kangtai shares and Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co.Ltd(300910) are gradually participating in the competition in China's medium and high-end market, and the specifications and standards of independent lubricating oil are gradually established, which is conducive to the fair competition between domestic compound agent manufacturers and international enterprises on the same platform. On the demand side, automotive lubricants account for about 2 / 3, which is the largest application field. The huge car ownership is an important guarantee for the stable development of the industry in a long time in the future. Shanghai lubricating oil industry association predicts that the global and Chinese lubricating oil additive market will reach US $18.5 billion and US $3.8 billion respectively in 2023; In recent years, foreign compound agent giants have built factories in China. We calculate that the demand gap of single agent supporting in China is about 300000 tons.
The company plans to acquire Kangtai shares to create the second growth curve of lubricating oil additives
The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire 92.21% equity of Kangtai shares. Kangtai Co., Ltd. is one of the companies with the most complete product series of lubricating oil additives in China. It has profound technical accumulation. It has an existing capacity of 93000 tons and a capacity under construction of 50000 tons. It is expected to be put into operation in June 2022. Kangtai Co., Ltd. has cooperated with Lubrizol and runyinglian to establish cooperative relations, which is expected to seize the opportunity of the localization strategy implemented by the four major international enterprises. After the phase II project is put into operation, it is expected to supplement the short board of the production line and carry out compound agent cooperation with large lubricating oil plants outside China.
Risk warning: the progress of asset restructuring is less than expected, the production capacity is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
