Matters:
On March 22, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system, which mainly expounds China’s energy development policies, main objectives, tasks and measures. It is the overall blueprint and action program for accelerating the construction of modern energy system and promoting high-quality energy development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Guoxin environmental protection public view: 1) the plan puts forward goals for a number of development including double carbon, electric power and new energy, and clearly speeds up the promotion of the optimal combination of coal and new energy; 2) Compared with previous policies, the development goals proposed in this document are basically in line with expectations, and new goals including 39% of non fossil energy power generation and 24% of flexible power supply are proposed for the first time to ensure the development trend of new energy and energy storage; 3) The document further emphasizes that it is imperative to deepen the reform of power system, deepen the market-oriented reform of price formation mechanism, and establish a market-oriented mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and energy storage; 4) Investment suggestions: 1. Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. As a high-quality asset with high yield, the valuation of nuclear power will be improved. It is recommended that “nuclear power and new energy” two wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; 2. The reform of electricity marketization has been promoted, the electricity price can better reflect the value of supply and demand, cost and environment, the construction cost of new energy continues to decline, and the profitability of new energy will be improved. It is recommended to recommend China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, which has capital cost and resource advantages; 3. The policy promotes the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The long-term association coal price + long-term association electricity price policy is expected to be implemented, the linkage mechanism will be formed, the market-oriented trading of coal and electricity will be expanded, and the turning point of thermal power profit will appear. It is recommended to actively transform new energy with abundant cash flow, and the leader of thermal power Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ; 4. The construction of new power system with new energy as the main source, and the construction of comprehensive electric energy service and intelligent distribution network are deeply beneficial. The comprehensive electric energy service provider Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
Comments:
Development goals of double carbon, electric power and new energy in the plan
Put forward the main objectives of the construction of modern energy system in the 14th five year plan: ① ensure energy security. By 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal, the annual output of natural gas will reach more than 230 billion cubic meters, the total installed capacity of power generation will reach about 3 billion kilowatts, the energy reserve system will be improved, and the independent energy supply capacity will be further enhanced. ② Accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy. By 2025, the carbon dioxide emission per unit GDP will decrease by 18% in five years, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, the level of electrification will continue to improve, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30%. ③ Improve the efficiency of the energy system, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 13.5% in five years. The allocation of energy resources is more reasonable, and the coordinated operation capacity of power is continuously strengthened. By 2025, the proportion of flexibly regulated power supply will reach about 24%, and the response capacity of power demand side will reach 3% ~ 5% of the maximum power load.
\u3000\u30001. Vigorously develop non fossil energy: ① accelerate the development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation. Comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation. In areas with good wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) resource endowments, superior construction conditions, sustainable integrated development conditions and meeting the requirements of regional ecological environment protection, orderly promote the centralized development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas. Carry out hydrogen production demonstration of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Encourage the construction of offshore wind power bases and promote the distribution of offshore wind power to Deep-water and far shore areas. Actively develop Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) thermal power generation. ② Develop hydropower according to local conditions. Promote the synergy and complementarity of hydropower, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in Southwest China. By 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower will reach about 380 million KW. ③ Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. On the premise of ensuring safety, actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects, maintain a stable pace of construction, and reasonably arrange new coastal nuclear power projects. The installed capacity of nuclear power will reach about 70 million kilowatts by 2025. ④ Develop other renewable energy sources according to local conditions. Promote the diversified utilization of biomass energy, steadily develop urban domestic waste incineration power generation, orderly develop agricultural and forestry biomass power generation and biogas power generation, develop biomass energy clean heating according to local conditions, and develop and utilize marine energy according to local conditions.
\u3000\u30002. Promote the construction of new power system: ① promote the evolution of power system to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy. Increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale wind and solar power bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around them, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. ② Innovate the structure and operation mode of power grid. Improve the dynamic stability level of the power grid to adapt to new energy, optimize the transmission curve and price mechanism, strengthen the coordinated peak shaving operation of the power grid at the sending and receiving ends, and improve the capacity of the whole network to absorb new energy. ③ Enhance the ability of power coordination and optimization. Improve the power prediction level of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, fully implement the flexible transformation of coal motor units, build natural gas peak shaving power stations and develop heat storage Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) thermal power generation according to local conditions, and accelerate the construction of pumped storage power stations. By 2025, the total scale of flexible transformation of coal motor units will exceed 200 million KW, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach more than 62 million KW, and the installed capacity under construction will reach about 60 million KW. ④ Accelerate the large-scale application of new energy storage technologies. Vigorously promote the development of energy storage on the power side and reasonably allocate the energy storage scale. Optimize the layout of grid side energy storage. ⑤ Vigorously improve the elasticity of power load. Strengthen the construction of power demand side response capacity, integrate and disperse demand response resources, and guide users to optimize power storage and consumption mode. By 2025, the power demand side response capacity will reach 3% ~ 5% of the maximum load, of which East China, central China and South China will reach about 5% of the maximum load.
\u3000\u30003. Greater efforts should be made to strengthen energy conservation and carbon reduction: ① improve the “double control” of energy consumption and carbon emission control system. Accelerate the construction of the national carbon emission trading market and promote the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity. ② Vigorously promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal. Strictly and reasonably control the growth of coal consumption during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Vigorously promote the “three transformation linkage” of coal power energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation, flexibility transformation and heating transformation. The scale of energy conservation transformation during the 14th Five Year Plan period shall not be less than 350 million KW. All new coal-fired power units are built in accordance with ultra-low emission standards, and the coal consumption standards have reached the international advanced level. ③ Implement energy conservation and carbon reduction actions in key industries. ④ Improve the low-carbon electrification level of terminal energy consumption. ⑤ Implement green and low-carbon national action.
\u3000\u30004. Rational allocation of energy resources: ① improve the pattern of energy production and supply. We will promote the outward transmission of electricity from large clean energy bases in an orderly manner, and increase the proportion of renewable energy delivered by stock channels. In principle, the proportion of renewable energy delivered by new channels shall not be less than 50%, and priority shall be given to channels with a higher proportion of renewable energy. ② Strengthen the construction of trans provincial and trans regional transmission channels for power and oil and gas. During the “14th five year plan” period, the transmission capacity of existing channels will be increased by more than 40 million KW, more than 60 million kw of inter provincial and inter regional transmission channels will be newly started, and the average utilization hours of inter provincial and inter regional DC transmission channels will strive to reach more than 4500 hours.
\u3000\u30005. Comprehensively improve the level of regional energy development: ① promote the green and efficient development of clean energy bases in the West.
Actively promote the construction of clean energy base with multi energy complementarity, scientifically optimize the scale ratio of power supply, give priority to the use of existing conventional power supply, implement multi energy complementary projects such as “wind, water (storage)” and “wind, fire (storage)”, vigorously develop new energy such as wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and maximize the use of renewable energy. ② Improve the level of clean and low-carbon energy development in the eastern and central regions. Promote the construction of nuclear power projects in coastal areas in a safe and orderly manner, comprehensively promote the large-scale development of offshore wind power, and actively develop new energy such as wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , biomass energy and geothermal energy. Vigorously develop the integration of source, network, load and storage. ③ During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual comprehensive production capacity of the Western clean energy base increased by more than 350 million tons of standard coal. The eastern and central regions will add more than 150 million tons of standard coal to the annual production capacity of non fossil energy.
\u3000\u30006. Building a modern energy market: ① optimize the market-oriented allocation of energy resources. We will deepen the reform of the power system and accelerate the construction and improvement of a power market system that organically connects the medium and long-term market, the spot market and the auxiliary service market. Promote the construction of power market in the direction of supporting provinces, encouraging regions and promoting the construction of national unified market system. ② Deepen the market-oriented reform of price formation mechanism. Further improve the price formation mechanism of provincial power grid, regional power grid, cross provincial and cross regional special projects and incremental distribution network, and speed up the rationalization of the transmission and distribution price structure. We will continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of on grid electricity prices for coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, hydropower and nuclear power, improve the price formation mechanism for wind power, photovoltaic power generation and pumped storage, and establish a new energy storage price mechanism.
Comparison between the energy target of the 14th five year plan and the previous policy target
Comparing the objectives proposed in the plan with the previous policy related objectives, the objectives during the 14th Five Year Plan period are basically in line with expectations. Accelerate the development of wind power and photovoltaic, develop hydropower according to local conditions, orderly develop nuclear power, reasonably develop coal power according to needs, and promote the integrated development of gas power and new energy. On this basis, some new indicators are proposed for the first time, including 39% of non fossil energy power generation and 24% of flexible power supply in 2025. The target of power generation proportion ensures the expansion trend of the installed scale of new energy power, and the flexible adjustment of power supply proportion ensures the expansion of pumped storage and new energy storage.
At the same time, the plan proposes to deepen the reform of power system, deepen the market-oriented reform of price formation mechanism, innovate the power dispatching and trading mechanism conducive to the consumption of non fossil energy power generation, promote the orderly participation of non fossil energy power generation in power market transactions, expand consumption space through market-oriented methods, and pilot green power transactions. This ensures that the overall trend of power market-oriented reform is to adapt to new energy power, and the direction of new energy’s “orderly and beneficial” participation in market-oriented transactions will not change.
Investment advice
1. Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. As a high-quality asset with high yield, the valuation of nuclear power will be improved. It is recommended that “nuclear power and new energy” two wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; 2. The reform of electricity marketization has been promoted, the electricity price can better reflect the value of supply and demand, cost and environment, the construction cost of new energy continues to decline, and the profitability of new energy will be improved. It is recommended to recommend China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, which has capital cost and resource advantages; 3. The policy promotes the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The long-term association coal price + long-term association electricity price policy is expected to be implemented, the linkage mechanism will be formed, the market-oriented trading of coal and electricity will be expanded, and the turning point of thermal power profit will appear. It is recommended to actively transform new energy with abundant cash flow, and the leader of thermal power Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ; 4. The construction of new power system with new energy as the main source, and the construction of comprehensive electric energy service and intelligent distribution network are deeply beneficial. The comprehensive electric energy service provider Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
Risk tips:
Relevant policies are not as expected; The growth rate of power consumption decreased; Electricity price reduction; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
