Event: on March 22, China Southern Energy Regulatory Bureau prepared the “implementation rules for the management of grid connected operation in the southern region” and the “implementation rules for the management of auxiliary services in the southern region” (Exposure Draft), which opened the access scope of independent energy storage and improved the compensation standard for deep peak shaving. The detailed rules stipulate that the new energy storage power station with capacity of 10MW / h and above, which directly signs the grid connection dispatching agreement with the power dispatching organization in an independent capacity, is not limited by the access location. Considering the high operation cost of independent energy storage, it encourages the aggregation of small capacity and decentralized energy storage into a directly controlled aggregation platform (including load aggregator, virtual power plant, etc.), and stipulates that the compensation standard of independent energy storage power station refers to the second gear of coal turbine deep peak regulation, Taking Guangdong as an example, the compensation standard for deep peak shaving of energy storage is about 0.792 yuan / kWh, an increase of 0.292 yuan / kWh compared with the 2020 version. Other auxiliary services such as primary frequency modulation, AGC, reactive power regulation and other varieties adopt the compensation standard consistent with that of conventional units.
The IRR of PV on the power generation side is increased by 0.6pct under the condition of solving the problem of light abandonment and participating in peak shaving services. Assuming that the compensation for peak shaving is 0.792 yuan / kWh after price adjustment, all remaining capacity is fully used for peak shaving service except for wind and light abandonment. Taking the first year as an example, for each w of photovoltaic power generation facilities, the energy storage equipment solves the problem of light abandonment of 27wh, which can provide a total capacity of about 70wh once a day in a year, and all the remaining 43wh participate in peak shaving services. The photovoltaic investment is 4 yuan / W, the energy storage system investment is 1.8 yuan / wh, the energy storage ratio is 10%, and the charging time is 2H. Under the above assumptions, the IRR of photovoltaic + energy storage on the power generation side to solve light abandonment and participate in market-oriented peak shaving auxiliary services is 6.93%, which is 0.6pct higher than that before the subsidy adjustment.
Independent energy storage and peak shaving at the grid side is economical, and the 10-year IRR changes from negative to more than 6%. It is assumed that the peak shaving compensation is 0.792 yuan / kWh. If the energy storage investment is 1.6 yuan / wh, the corresponding LCOS (energy storage leveling cost) is about 0.74 yuan / kWh, and the peak shaving subsidy rises to 0.792 yuan / kWh. Before raising the standard, the kWh compensation is lower than the kWh cost, and the IRR is negative. The independent energy storage power station does not have economy. After adjustment, the 10-year IRR can reach more than 6%, and the independent energy storage peak shaving on the grid side has good economy.
The new policy is expected to promote the rapid and large-scale growth of the independent energy storage market. It is of great significance for the South Grid to improve the peak shaving compensation standard. On the one hand, it reduces the access threshold of independent energy storage power stations, on the other hand, it increases subsidies and straightens out the business model and economy, which is expected to directly promote the subsequent spontaneous growth of independent energy storage market. Subsequently, with the policy of opening up the energy storage supply side + rationalizing the economy from the price side, we are optimistic about the rapid and large-scale demand for energy storage in China.
Investment suggestion: maintain high growth rate in the downstream market, and recommend Inverter Companies with high reserves [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ], [ Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to the fire hydrant in the field of energy storage fire protection [ Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ], and the [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ], which is expected to increase rapidly.
Risk tips: the implementation of policies is less than expected, the installed capacity of energy storage is less than expected, the price of raw materials rises, etc.
