Core view
International crude oil prices rose again this week. Considering the long-term complexity of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the recovery of global demand, we are still optimistic that international oil prices will remain at the current high level. Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted. At present, the monthly output of polysilicon in a single month has reached more than 50000 tons, and will maintain a high month on month growth rate in the future. Therefore, the production of new polysilicon units and the daily chlorine supplement of stock capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane, while the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is limited this year, We are optimistic about the future polysilicon production capacity and the high prospect of trichlorosilane industry. On March 17, Indonesia said it would cancel China’s palm oil market obligation (DMO) policy. Previously, it required 30% of China’s total export volume of palm oil to increase the export tax of crude palm oil from 375 US dollars / ton to 675 US dollars / ton. The downstream industrial chain of palm oil in Indonesia will greatly benefit, and the cost of oil chemicals will expand to more than 500 US dollars / ton compared with overseas factories, focusing on [ Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) ] with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of local capacity in Indonesia. Biodiesel is the most beneficial product in the context of the continuous sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Due to the carbon reduction requirements of Europe and other countries around the world, the demand for products has been strong in recent years. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material is more supported by relevant policies in Europe, and it is expected to replace biodiesel with palm oil and soybean oil in the European market in the future, with huge market space, We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity of Chinese biodiesel enterprises and the profit expansion trend of products in the future. The downstream stock of sweetener represented by sucralose is about to open. At the same time, due to the continuous improvement of the concept of sugar substitute, the penetration rate in the field of food and beverage will continue to increase in the future. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term business cycle of sweetener industry. At the same time, we are optimistic about the low-cost comparative advantage and competitiveness of coal chemical enterprises under the background of the continuous and substantial rise of international crude oil prices. In addition, in the current market environment, we strongly recommend [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) \ (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products) Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (coal and natural gas) and Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (sucralose).
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are butadiene (6.64%), urea (3.73%), PX (3.17%), PTA (2.94%) and methanol (2.94%); The top five declines in the price of chemical products this week were dimethyl carbonate (- 6.95%), glyphosate (- 6.67%), acrylic acid (- 5.70%), butyl acrylate (- 5.43%) and bisphenol A (- 5.30%).
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in the price difference of chemical products this week are propylene (naphtha method) (63.04%), ethylene oxide (47.69%), butadiene (40.34%), styrene (34.76%) and BDO (CIS ANHYDRIC method) (27.43%); The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were propylene (MTO method) (- 255417%), caprolactam (- 72.41%), ethyl acetate (- 35.77%), propylene (PDH method) (- 28.65%) and PMMA (- 27.48%).
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of the overseas epidemic has led to a lower than expected recovery.
