\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Core view
The company focuses on in vitro diagnosis and vaccine industry. Driven by HPV vaccine sales, the performance has entered a rapid growth period. Founded in 1991, the company has always focused on the R & D, production and sales of in vitro diagnostic (IVD) reagents, instruments and vaccines. IVD business covers many fields, such as enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, colloidal gold, chemiluminescence, nucleic acid detection, biochemical detection and so on; Xiamen Wantai Canghai subsidiary mainly focuses on the R & D, production and sales of genetic engineering vaccine. In 2012, it achieved the listing of the world’s first hepatitis E vaccine. At the end of 2019, it was approved that the first domestic bivalent cervical cancer vaccine (HPV) was officially listed and sold in 2020, driving the company’s performance into a rapid growth period. In recent years, the company’s operating revenue has increased rapidly, from 950 million yuan in 2017 to 5.75 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 56.87%; The profit side also showed strong performance. The net profit increased from 150 million yuan in 2017 to 2.02 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 91.35%.
The first domestic HPV vaccine supplier, enjoying a broad market. Up to now, HPV vaccine is still the only vaccine for cancer prevention in the world, with significant prevention effect and safety. At present, only four HPV vaccines in the world have been approved for listing, including the tetravalent and nine valent vaccines of MSD, the bivalent vaccine of GSK and the bivalent vaccine of the company. Globally, the HPV vaccine market as a whole is in short supply; From the perspective of China, at present, the penetration rate of female school-age population aged 9-45 in China is only 7.5%, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. According to our calculation, the market penetration space of HPV vaccine in China is large, and the corresponding market space is broad. As the only domestic HPV vaccine supplier approved at present, the company has few potential competitive products on the market in the short term, and is expected to fully benefit from the large-scale growth of the industry in the medium and short term; At the same time, the company’s research and development progress of HPV nine valent vaccine products is at the forefront of the market and has benefited from the growth of the industry for a long time.
The company has deep R & D accumulation and rich pipeline reserves under research. The company has a deep research and development accumulation, and cooperates with the research team of Professor Xia nidvd of Xiamen University to develop a unique E. coli expressing virion like particle vaccine technology platform with independent intellectual property rights, which has broad application prospects. Based on this technology platform, in addition to HPV vaccine, the company also reserves varicella vaccine, nasal covid-19 vaccine, 20 valent pneumonia vaccine and other pipelines under development, which can be developed in the long term. At present, chickenpox vaccine has completed phase III clinical trial and may be on the market in a short time, providing a new growth point.
IVD business structure continues to be optimized, and chemiluminescence and covid-19 business drive growth. Affected by the industry, the growth of the company’s traditional immune reagents is weak. In order to further optimize the product structure, the company has vigorously promoted chemiluminescence diagnostic instruments and supporting reagents since 2016, bringing the second growth curve of IVD business. At the same time, relying on its advantages in the field of infectious disease detection, the company cut into the field of covid-19 detection to bring short-term increment to its performance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
In terms of valuation, we predict that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.83 yuan, 7.73 yuan and 9.42 yuan respectively. Considering the scarcity and rapid growth of the company in the field of HPV vaccine, with reference to the comparable company’s 22-year 45 times PE, a 20% premium will be given, and finally 54 times PE will be given for 22 years, with the corresponding target price of 314.82 yuan. A buy rating will be given for the first time.
Risk tips
HPV vaccine sales were lower than expected; HPV vaccine prices fell sharply; The pipeline under research is not as expected; Chemiluminescence sales were lower than expected; Changes in assumptions affect the measurement results and other risks.
