\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 166 Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) )
Key investment points
Data overview
2021a Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) net profit attributable to parent company + 24.1% year on year, growth rate + 0.6pc month on month; Revenue + 8.9% year on year, growth rate + 0.8pc month on month; ROE13. 9%, year-on-year + 1.3pc; ROA1. 02%, year-on-year + 12bp. The non-performing rate was 1.10%, with a chain comparison of - 2bp, and the provision coverage rate was 269%, with a chain comparison of + 5.7pc.
The promotion of "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy is expected to exceed expectations
The annual report speech of the chairman and president shows that the running in effect of the new management team is better than expected and the future strategic promotion is expected to be better than expected. (1) "Draw a blueprint to the end", and the new management highly agrees with the strategy of "commercial bank + investment bank"; (2) "Must run out of the acceleration of strategy implementation", "do well and do well", which shows that the new management's determination to promote the strategy is unusual; (3) Specific measures are practical and effective to realize strategic transformation through digital transformation, system and mechanism reform and strengthening the talent base. 2022 will be the first year of the full implementation of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy. The commercial bank + investment bank strategy will be officially promoted to full implementation from drawing drawings and training samples. (4) "Seize the day and strive for good results" and "greet the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress with excellent results" will become the source of confidence for Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) of investment in 2022.
The three business cards of green, wealth and investment bank are getting brighter and brighter
(1) Green Bank: the financing balance was 1.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, 6.4pc faster than that of 21h1; Among them, the loan was 453.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42% over the beginning of the year.
(2) wealth Bank: AUM reached 2.85 trillion, an increase of 9% year-on-year; The income of fortune bank was 23.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Future growth points: ① financial business: 21a financial balance of 1.75 trillion, an increase of 20% year-on-year. In the future, fortune cloud is expected to promote the rapid growth of financial management business. The financial management ownership of 21a bank cooperation channels is 178.3 billion yuan, double year-on-year. ② Private banks: the number of private bank customers was 58000, with a year-on-year increase of 20%; The average monthly and daily aum742.5 billion of private banks increased by 17% year-on-year. With the independent licensing and the improvement of the sales capacity of complex wealth products, the contribution of private banks is expected to increase. ③ Wealth platform: build a wealth management ecosystem, upgrade the "money shopkeeper" and build an open platform for wealth sales of the whole group.
(3) investment bank: the financing balance of FPA is 7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, 3.0pc faster than that in 2020. Among them, the balance of non-traditional off balance sheet financing was 2.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, 14 PC faster than that in 2020. Investment banking revenue was 4.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; Ficc's revenue from acting customers was 3.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; Market making revenue was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 234%.
The real estate risk base is clear, dispelling market doubts
(1) performance of the whole bank: the defective rate increased from -2bp to 1.10% month on month; The concern rate was + 5bp to 1.52% month on month, due to the strengthening of overdue recognition of Q4 credit cards and the default of some real estate enterprises. The loan allocation ratio is 2.96%, the non-standard allocation ratio is 6.09%, and the impairment is sufficient. (2) Two areas: for the detailed disclosure of real estate and government financing platforms, the situation is clear and the risk is real. ① Real estate: the balance of corporate financing of real estate is 532.1 billion yuan, accounting for 6.2% of the total assets; Off balance sheet consignment is only 27.1 billion yuan, and the main body is of high quality. Among them, the balance of collateral financing in the table is 447.7 billion yuan, more than 89% of which are distributed in the first and second tier cities and trillion GDP cities. From the perspective of non-performing assets and provisions, the balance of non-performing assets in the balance sheet is 16.7 billion yuan, with a non-performing rate of 3.13%. It is speculated that Q4 will move down the risk rating of some customers and be impaired in full. At the end of the year, the provision coverage rate reached 305%, and the provision balance was 50.8 billion yuan. ② Platform: the balance of on balance sheet and off balance sheet financing is 307.7 billion yuan, and the non-performing amount is only 6 billion yuan.
Profits keep growing at a high speed and the future potential is promising
Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) 21q4 main contributing factors to profits: ① 21a non interest income increased by 26.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 1.9pc month on month; other non interest income increased by 50% month on month, with a growth rate of + 27.3pc month on month. It is speculated that there is still surplus food left in the growth of medium income. ② The tax contribution has increased significantly. It is speculated that due to the vigorous allocation of bonds and the growth of interest free income in Q3, the investment income is expected to perform well in 2022. ③ The risk of asset quality is real. Considering the risk factors such as real estate, sufficient provisions have been made. The asset quality index is expected to improve in 2022, and the impairment is expected to contribute to the profit growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15.32% / 15.48% / 15.78% year-on-year, corresponding to bps32 15 / 36.10/40.70 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.62/0.55/0.49 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 33.50 yuan / share, corresponding to 22-year PB1 04x, the current price corresponds to 22-year pb0 62x, 69% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse.
