\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 272 Sichuan Crun Co.Ltd(002272) )
Leading high-end equipment in the field of wind power hydraulic lubrication, business scale expansion and profitability improvement. The company started as a lubricating hydraulic equipment, deeply cultivated fluid control technology for 30 years, participated in the formulation of four national standards in the industry, business layout, high-end equipment manufacturing and industrial services, and the field of wind power has become the core application field of the company's products. Since 2019, the company's revenue scale has entered a rapid growth period, deducting non parent net profit to turn loss into profit, and the profitability has been continuously improved. In the 21st year, the company reviewed and approved the equity incentive plan with the revenue from 2021 to 2023 as the assessment objective, demonstrating the company's determination to expand its business scale. In addition, the fixed increase plan with a fund-raising of no more than 630 million yuan has been considered and approved by the board of directors and the general meeting of shareholders of the company, and is expected to be implemented in 2022 to improve the company's production capacity and industrial service capacity.
Wind power industry: wind power hydraulic lubrication fluid control system has 10 billion market space. Under the background of "double carbon", the prospect of wind power is broad, the cost reduction of sea wind is accelerated, and the trend of large-scale fan is significant. The semi direct drive technology route takes into account the high stability of direct drive and the low cost of doubly fed, which is expected to be widely used in sea breeze. We estimate that from 2022 to 2025, the market space of China's wind power hydraulic lubrication fluid control system will increase from 9.6 billion yuan to 14.5 billion yuan.
Hydraulic lubrication fluid control system business: wind power hydraulic lubrication system is equipped with a leader, and the new integrated machine is expected to power the Haifeng market. The global market share of the company's wind power lubrication system products exceeds 30%, and the market service after wind power operation and maintenance is expected to provide new growth momentum for wind power business. In addition, the company innovated and launched an integrated machine product integrating three subsystems: hydraulic, lubrication and water cooling. The product has the advantages of low cost, small volume and more stable performance, and has advantages in the application of offshore fans. The company's deep cooperation key customer Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , has signed a framework contract of 630 million yuan for cooperation in 2022 Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) as the leader of offshore wind turbine adopting semi direct drive route, the company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of its offshore wind layout.
Hydraulic parts business: rapid rise and expansion of product types. Hydraulic system is one of the main costs of construction machinery, and the localization degree of key parts is low. At present, due to the high cost performance and stable supply of products from domestic manufacturers, the import substitution of hydraulic parts of construction machinery is becoming a trend. Since 2019, the company has laid out the field of hydraulic components, and its business income has grown rapidly. The company acquired 75% equity of ousheng hydraulic in 2020 and the remaining minority equity in February 2022 to supplement the hydraulic piston pump product line. The company's fixed increase plan plans to use 100 million yuan of the raised funds for the construction of ousheng hydraulic Qidong base, which is expected to significantly improve the production capacity of ousheng hydraulic and help the volume of hydraulic components.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 51 million yuan, 113 million yuan and 177 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.12, 0.26 and 0.40 yuan Sichuan Crun Co.Ltd(002272) is equipped with a leader for the wind power hydraulic lubrication system. The wind power hydraulic lubrication fluid control system has a market space of 10 billion. The new products of the company's all-in-one machine are expected to power the Haifeng market; In addition, the company's hydraulic parts business is rising rapidly and is expected to become the second growth power of the company. According to the relative valuation method and absolute valuation method, based on the principle of prudence, we give the company a target price of 6.50 yuan (corresponding to 22-year pe25x), and give a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: downstream demand fluctuation risk; The risk that the promotion of fixed increase does not meet the expectation; Risk of contract execution schedule delay.
