\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 305 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) )
Event:
Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) released the annual report for 2021: during the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85.77%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 413 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.16%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non profits was 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.55%.
Key investment points:
Q4 revenue + 93.52%, gross profit margin under short-term pressure. In Q4 of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 93.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 20.06%; The gross profit margin was 18.30%, with a year-on-year increase of -9.95pct. The decrease of gross profit margin is mainly due to the influence of raw material price and freight. In view of the rising price of upstream raw materials, the price of Q4 raw material aluminum has fallen in 2021. However, due to the continuous batch procurement, the impact of raw material prices on gross profit margin lags behind. We believe that as the global covid-19 epidemic gradually normalizes, the relationship between supply and demand of raw materials will gradually return to normal, shipping freight will also be periodically corrected, and the company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve.
The R & D expense rate is + 0.74pct, and technological breakthroughs promote the expansion of product categories. In 2021, the company’s net interest rate was 13.65%, a year-on-year increase of -6.8pct. In 2021, the company’s sales expense ratio was 0.71%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.05pct; The management expense ratio was 2.52%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.78pct; The financial expense ratio was 0.73%, year-on-year -0.52pct; The R & D expense rate was 4.28%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.74pct. The increase of R & D expense rate is mainly due to the company’s investment in key R & D projects: 1. The company benefited from the continuous large-scale orders in the aluminum die-casting sector, and the smooth mass production of new components such as great wall DHT double motor, Mercedes Benz motor shell, lucid power system, body system and battery system, so as to achieve a new breakthrough in revenue scale; 2. The market development of aluminum extrusion products has been continuously strengthened. In addition to adding a number of fixed points of battery pack shell parts projects, the projects under research include anti-collision beam, threshold beam, subframe, battery pack box and other products. We believe that the expansion of product categories will become a new growth point of the company in the future.
Benefiting from the continuous high growth of Tesla sales, the development of other customers is progressing smoothly. The company’s customers include Tesla, great wall, Polaris and other host plants, as well as ZF, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other Tier1 enterprises. 1. Tesla, the company’s main customer, delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. From January to February 2022, Tesla sold 116360 domestic vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 244%. We expect that Tesla will sell 1.7 million vehicles worldwide in 2022, including 800000 domestic Tesla vehicles. The company will benefit from the high sales growth of key customers Tesla. 2. From 2019 to 2021, the proportion of non Tesla customers’ revenue was 46.31%, 56.51% and 60.07% respectively. Tesla’s impact on the proportion of revenue gradually decreased, which also fully reflects the company’s good progress in customer development. In 2021, the revenue of mold business was 128 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 158.65%; Shanghai Fengxian secoli has become the company’s second largest customer with 9.55% of its revenue.
Profit forecast and investment rating give the company a “buy” rating. We are optimistic about the future development of the company. It is expected that the company will realize main business revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan and 7.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48%, 30% and 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 724 million yuan, 1 billion yuan and 1.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75%, 38% and 26%; The corresponding EPS is 1.62, 2.24 and 2.81 yuan.
Risk Tips 1) the price of raw materials continues to rise; 2) International shipping prices continued to rise; 3) The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected; 4) The company’s new customer expansion is less than expected; 5) The company’s new business development is less than expected.
