\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 77 Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) )
Core view
Scale integration doubled and revenue increased steadily. In 2021, the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 169979 billion and RMB 12.53 billion respectively. After retroactive adjustment, the growth rate was 4.83% and – 3.53% respectively, the basic EPS was 1.5653 yuan / share, and the proposed 10 dividend was 3.3 yuan (including tax), which was in line with the previous performance forecast. As the first year after the completion of the restructuring, the company achieved a small increase in revenue scale, and the profit side was slightly under pressure due to the rise in the price of raw and fuel materials.
The upward cost affects the profitability, and the expense control is improved. In 2021, the company’s cement clinker revenue was 113.86 billion yuan, an increase of 6.88% at the same time, and the sales volume reached 317 million tons, a decrease of 3.4% at the same time. Mainly affected by the decline in demand in the second half of the year, the annual ton revenue / ton cost / ton gross profit was 359 / 257 / 102 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 35 / + 36 / – 1.7 yuan / ton respectively; The revenue of concrete business was RMB 48.562 billion, decreased by 0.06% at the same time, and the sales volume reached 105 million m3, increased by + 0.5% at the same time. The single party revenue / cost / gross profit was 464 / 396 / 68 yuan / m3 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.7 / + 17.5 / – 20.11 yuan / m3 respectively; The aggregate revenue was 4.19 billion yuan, an increase of 25.42% and the sales volume was 86 million tons, an increase of 34.1%. The expense side was slightly optimized. During the reporting period, the expense rate decreased slightly by 0.02pct to 10.45% year-on-year, of which the sales, management and financial expense rates decreased by 0.19/0.04/0.37pct to 1.61% / 5.03% / 2.76% year-on-year respectively, and the R & D expense rate increased slightly by 0.59pct to 1.06%, mainly due to new R & D projects. At the end of the period, the company’s asset liability ratio was 67.96%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.12pct. There is still room for improvement and Optimization in the future.
Strengthen internal integrated management, and asset quality is expected to remain optimized. After the completion of major asset restructuring, the company started internal integration and management, built a new flat management organization, and re divided the original five sector companies and their subsidiaries into 10 specialized cement companies, 4 regional companies and subsidiaries specialized in commercial concrete aggregate and special cement business, which will help to further give play to internal synergy and improve the profitability, operation level and comprehensive competitiveness of the company. During the reporting period, the company’s provision for asset impairment and credit impairment totaled 5.22 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 3.2 billion over the previous year. It is expected to maintain a downward trend and provide performance flexibility in the future.
Risk warning: the increase of supply exceeds expectations; The implementation of the project is not as expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
Investment suggestion: the safety margin is good and the “buy” rating is maintained.
At present, xintianshan cement has become the largest cement enterprise in China, with a clinker production capacity of 330 million tons. In the future, in addition to further optimizing the cement business and consolidating the commercial mixing business, it will accelerate the development of aggregate business and increase resource reserves. The company requires that the dividend rate in 2022 be no less than 50% and 6%, with a good margin of safety. It is estimated that the EPS in 202224 will be 1.64/1.76/1.84 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 8.0/7.4/7.1x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
