\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Events:
The company released the 2021 annual report: the annual revenue was 3.206 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.75%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 310 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.24%. The basic earnings per share was 0.36 yuan / share. The dividend plan of the annual report: cash dividend of 2.00 yuan (including tax) per 10 shares.
Comments:
Rising costs erode profits, new project order reserves are sufficient, and future growth can be expected
1) quarterly, Q4 achieved a revenue of 854 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 0.76% / 9.40% month on month, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 23.28%, a decrease of 2.60/1.53pct month on month, mainly due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and freight charges; The net profit was 31 million yuan, down 82.07% / 61.56% on a month on month basis, corresponding to a net interest rate of 4.05%, down 16.62/6.65 PCT on a month on month basis, which was caused by the joint influence of cost and expense side. Among them, the expense rate increased by 10.98/3.34 PCT on a month on month basis (the R & D expenses and financial expenses caused by the R & D and exchange losses of new projects increased by 58.03% / 360.50% on a year-on-year basis). 2) The company complied with the trend of Automotive Electric Intelligence and actively developed new projects. The annual revenue of new energy automotive products increased by about 180% year-on-year, with a strong growth momentum, in line with our expectations. In terms of orders, the new energy vehicle project, thermal management system project and intelligent driving vision system project obtained by the company in 2020 / 2021 are expected to account for about 28% / 70% of the new sales revenue within the service life, which will continue to be a new growth highlight of the company in the future.
The market space of automotive aluminum alloy is broad, and the growth space of the company is considerable
At present, the average aluminum consumption of passenger cars in China is 130kg / vehicle, which is a big gap compared with Europe and the United States; According to the road map of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology, by 2025 / 2030, China’s single vehicle aluminum consumption will exceed 250 / 350kg respectively, and China’s automotive aluminum alloy market has a large space in the future. Through calculation, we predict that by 2025, the market scale of global and Chinese automotive aluminum alloy will be 930 / 320 billion yuan respectively, and the market space of automotive aluminum alloy will be broad. The company has comparative advantages in the field of automotive aluminum alloy die castings in China, and is expected to fully benefit from the global and Chinese automotive lightweight trend in the future, with great growth potential.
Profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating
We expect that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.51/0.65/0.84 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 24 / 19 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: Economic and trade friction risk; Risk of chip shortage; Orders and revenue growth were lower than expected; The progress of new energy and intelligent vehicle projects is lower than expected; The increase of cost is higher than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The progress of improving quality and efficiency is lower than expected; exchange-rate risks.
