\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Performance review
On March 24, the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 4.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 160.6%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.7%.
Business analysis
Products and channels go hand in hand: 1) sub products: cheese / liquid milk / trading products, with a year-on-year revenue of + 60.8% / 4.0% / 97.0% respectively; 21q4 revenue was + 44.0% / 2.0% / 27.5% year-on-year respectively. In the cheese business, the revenue of ready to eat / family / Catering series was 2.51/3.5/470 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 70.8% / 6.3% / 72.7% respectively. 2) By Region: the revenue of North / central / South District in 21 years was + 51.0% / 60.2% / 67.2% year-on-year respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the number of dealers had reached 5363, with a net increase of 2737; It covers about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) terminals, compared with 290600 in the same period last year.
The gross profit margin of cheese continues to rise, and the pre expense affects the profit margin of Q4. In 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 38.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.3pct; 21q4 achieved a gross profit margin of 39.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 6.5pct. The gross profit margin of cheese / liquid milk / trading products in 21 years was 48.5% / 13.7% / 3.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.1 / - 4.2 / + 1.9pct; The scale effect and structural upgrading of cheese business drive the continuous improvement of gross profit margin. The management / sales / finance rate was + 2.7 / + 0.9 / - 1.7pct year-on-year in 21 years and + 3.3 / + 9.6 / - 1.7pct year-on-year in 21q4 respectively. The increase of management rate was mainly due to the equity incentive cost of 130 million yuan in 21 years (420000 yuan in 20 years), and the advertising cost in the Spring Festival peak season of 22 years was advanced to 21q4, resulting in high sales rate. On the net profit side, the net interest rate in 2021 increased by 1.7pct to 4.3%, and that in 21q4 increased by 1.2pct to 2.8%.
The Growth Logic of the past 22 years is clear, and there is room for optimization on the cost side. Revenue growth mainly depends on the volume of new products. Normal temperature cheese sticks reserve 30 production lines during the year. Through rapid distribution, they can seize the first mover advantage. Cheese slices and other new products have been listed one after another. Profit elasticity mainly comes from the improvement of cost-effectiveness ratio under the scale effect. In addition, some advertising expenses in 22 years have been advanced to 21q4.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be RMB 5.0/8.7/1.25 billion respectively, and the profit expectation in 22-23 years will be reduced by 32% / 16% compared with the previous period, mainly considering the uncertainty of the current external economic environment. The corresponding EPS of 22-24 years is 0.97/1.69/2.42 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation is 38 / 22 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The growth of new products did not meet the expectations, the expansion of channels did not meet the expectations, food safety problems and intensified industry competition.
