\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 196 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) )
Company performance: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 39.01 billion yuan, yoy + 28.7%, recorded net profit of 4.74 billion yuan, yoy + 29.3%, net profit after deduction of 3.28 billion yuan and yoy + 20.6%. The company’s performance was slightly better than our expectation, mainly due to the 29.02% equity transfer income of Yaneng biology and the investment income generated by the remaining equity measured at the fair value, while the increase of net profit after deduction was actually in line with the expectation. Quarterly, the company’s Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 achieved revenues of 8.06 billion yuan, 8.9 billion yuan, 10.1 billion yuan and 11.96 billion yuan respectively, with yoy + 37%, + 9.2%, + 25.0% and 45.7% respectively, and recorded net profits of 850 million yuan, 1.64 billion yuan, 1.08 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 46.8%, + 43.8%, + 41.6% and – 1.1% respectively. After deduction, yoy + 50.8%, + 5.1%, + 19.8% and + 21.9% respectively. In addition, the company issued a dividend plan, which plans to pay a dividend of 5.6 yuan per 10 shares.
Covid-19 vaccine contributes to incremental revenue: the company’s pharmaceutical business achieved a revenue of 28.9 billion yuan in 2021, with yoy + 32.1%. The negative factors of centralized procurement, the amount of innovative drugs, covid-19 vaccine sales and other positive factors coexist: (1) hanlikang achieved a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan and yoy + 125.3% in 2021, while hanquyou and Su Kexin, who entered the medical insurance in the third quarter of 2020 and the end of the year, also achieved a rapid volume, with a revenue of 930 million yuan and 430 million yuan respectively, Large varieties of innovative drugs are continuously increased; (2) Driven by micafungin, enoxaparin and 13 new products, the revenue of glandpharma2021 increased by 29.5% year-on-year; (3) Covid-19 vaccine fubitai (mRNA vaccine) was successively listed in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in 2021. A total of 22.06 million doses were sold during the year. According to our estimation, it contributed more than 4 billion yuan in revenue. Overall, the gross profit margin of the pharmaceutical business segment was 52.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3 percentage points. In addition to the factors of centralized procurement, it was also dragged down by factors such as the low gross profit margin of fubitai covid-19 vaccine and the rise in the price of raw materials. The segment realized a total profit of 2.63 billion yuan, with the same caliber of yoy + 22.0%.
The growth of devices is good, and the health service business has a restorative growth: (1) in 2021, the device and diagnosis business contributed a revenue of 5.94 billion yuan and recorded a segment profit of 2 billion yuan, with an increase of 21.3% and 15.3% respectively under the same caliber. On the one hand, with the epidemic control, the installed capacity of Leonardo da Vinci Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in 2021 increased by 18 to 73 units year-on-year, and the operation volume also increased significantly. In addition, sisram grew strongly in North America and Asia Pacific; (2) With the recovery of hospital diagnosis and treatment after the epidemic, the company’s health service business achieved a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, yoy + 29.8%. Due to the increased investment in digital team and online business and the early loss of newly opened hospitals, the segment profit of this sector was – 430 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 540 million yuan. However, we believe that the company’s active layout of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integrated service mode and the promotion of the transformation of interconnected medical services will lay a foundation for future performance growth.
Profit forecast: looking forward to the future, the company’s innovative products have successively entered the harvest period. MRNA covid-19 vaccine and covid-19 small molecule drugs have great performance flexibility, and the international layout also opens space for future growth. We expect the company to achieve net profits of 5.83 billion yuan and 7.03 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, with yoy + 23.0% and + 20.7% respectively, EPS of 2.3 yuan and 2.7 yuan respectively, corresponding to 24 times / 20 times of PE of A-Shares and 14 times / 11 times of PE of H shares. The valuation of A-Shares is reasonable and the valuation of H shares is low. We continue to give the investment rating of “buy” of a / H shares.
Risk warning: the approval and sales of vaccines are less than expected, the research and development progress of new products is less than expected, the performance of merging and purchasing enterprises does not meet expectations, and there is a risk of goodwill impairment
