\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Performance overview: the company released the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.022 billion yuan / + 52.57%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 863 million yuan / + 58.77%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 813 million yuan / + 58.59%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 single quarter was 1.91 billion yuan / + 56.66%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 508 million yuan / + 54.67%.
Revenue: Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) two wheel continuous drive, the main brand "Shumin +" product strategy is successful. 1) From the perspective of channels, the growth of two wheel drive companies is dominated by online and based on offline. Tiktok: in 2021, the online platform of the company went centralization. The total proportion of Tmall channel in 2021 and the proportion of Tmall's master live broadcasts continued to decline. The company strengthened the layout of the channel and mostly broadcast on the Internet. The operation of the multi platform online channel was effective. In 2021, the company's online revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan / + 51.94%, accounting for a slight decrease of 0.54 PCTs to 82.34% of the main business. Among them, the online self operated channel is the main source of income, realizing a revenue of 2.532 billion yuan / + 52.72%, accounting for a slight decrease of 0.09 PCTs to 63.19% of the main business. From the perspective of online proprietary channels and platforms, Alibaba achieved a revenue of 1.818 billion yuan / + 45.56% in 2021, accounting for 45.36% of the main business, with a decrease of 2.30 PCTs. In 2021, the company's main self built platforms added about 853200 users. By the end of 2021, the number of registered users was about 2.9835 million, and the average customer order price was as high as 111250 yuan. It is expected to continue to take advantage of the high customer stickiness and repurchase rate to further improve the revenue contribution in the future; Offline: by the end of 2021, the company had settled in more than 4000 Watson stores and covered more than 20000 OTC stores. In 2021, the company's offline contribution revenue was 708 million yuan / + 57.76%, accounting for 0.54 PCTs to 17.66% of the main business. Among them, the offline distribution and consignment channels grew rapidly, realizing revenue of 706 million yuan / + 58.27%. 2) In terms of categories, skin care products are still the main contribution point of the company's performance growth. In 2021, the revenue of skin care products, medical equipment products and color makeup products was 3.629 billion yuan / + 53.75%, 326 million yuan / + 67.12% and 53 million yuan / - 18.76% respectively, accounting for 90.22%, 8.10% and 1.32% of the operating revenue respectively. The average selling price of skin care products increased by 8.71% to 49.80 yuan over the same period.
Profitability: the gross profit margin remained stable and the expenses were well controlled, driving the increase of net profit margin. The gross profit margin of sales in 2021 was 76.01% / -0.24pcts, which remained stable compared with the same period last year. The company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio changed from - 0.20 / - 0.32 / + 0.42 / - 0.22pcts to 41.80% / 6.09% / 2.81% / - 0.25% year-on-year respectively. The optimization of the company's expense ratio during the period led to the company's return to parent net interest rate increasing by 0.82pcts to 21.46% year-on-year in 2021.
Highlights of the company: the double penetration of main brand efficacy breaking circle + category innovation, the relay of new brands, actively explore new growth curves, and make efforts to open up the interactive closed loop of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) members through all channels. 1) According to Euromonitor statistics, in 2021, the main brand Winona ranked first in the Chinese market share of dermatological skin care products, with a year-on-year increase of 2pcts, and the market share was close to the sum of the second and third. Large single product sunscreen cream and sunscreen are growing continuously. The products of SHISU min and freeze-dried facial mask are brightening. In 2022, the company will consolidate the "Shin" series and expand the product line to whitening, anti aging and other new effects. 2) Winona baby will divide its product lines by 0-3 years old, 3-6 years old and 6-12 years old this year. It is expected that a number of new products will be launched in the second half of this year. It will continue to rely on the competitiveness of clinical endorsement and the foundation of offline channels to move towards medium and high-end. Aoxmed, a new anti-aging brand, is positioned at the high end. It is expected to start from offline medical and beauty institutions in the first half of this year. In the later stage, it may replicate the main brand playing method and adopt the offline radiation online mode for promotion; Tiktok: 3) in 2022, the company will insist on Tmall as the basic disk, shaking hands and Kwai and other platforms as a starting point. Under the Winona line, we will open 80-100 offline brand experience stores to enhance brand image and open up the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) interactive interaction.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the company has taken the lead in the sensitive skin care track. The main brand Winona takes the "Shumin" series as the core and superimposes the launch of multi category pipelines, and its popularity will continue to increase. In the future, the company will take building skin health ecology as its mission and actively incubate sub brands. The company is expected to stabilize its leading position for a long time. We estimate that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 is predicted to be RMB 5.615/75.12/9.731 billion (growth rate: 40% / 34% / 30% respectively), the net profit attributable to the parent company is predicted to be RMB 1.163/15.63/2.071 billion (growth rate: 35% / 34% / 32% respectively), the EPS is RMB 2.75/3.69/4.89 respectively, and the current market value corresponding PE is 62x / 46x / 35x respectively. Considering the growth of the sensitive track where the company is located and the company enjoys a certain leading premium, the company is given 1.8xpeg in 2023, corresponding to 60x-65xpe. The company's target price range is 221.40-239.85 yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies the risk; Product promotion is not as expected; Weak consumer demand as a whole.
