\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 998 China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The revenue growth rate is upward, and the net profit maintains a double-digit high growth year-on-year. The annual revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year, the growth rate continued to maintain a slight upward, PPOP increased by 1.2% year-on-year, while the provision provision is expected to remain stable, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit maintained a double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. 2. In the fourth quarter, credit assets promoted the steady growth of asset scale. Loan Q4 increased by 2.2% month on month, and the proportion of loans increased by 0.1 percentage point to 61.1%, basically stable. In the second half of the year, the company increased the investment in retail loans, accounting for 42.3%. The newly added personal loans in the whole year were relatively balanced, and the newly added retail loans accounted for 42.3%. 3. The year-on-year growth rate of net non interest income widened to 28.1%, and net handling fee income and net other non interest income contributed jointly. The net handling fee increased by 24.4% year-on-year, of which the custody business was the business highlight in 21 years, with a growth rate of 87.6%, and the proportion increased to 25.2%. Net income from non investment increased by 35.2% year-on-year. 4. Asset quality remained stable, and non-performing assets decreased. In the fourth quarter, the company’s non-performing loan balance was 67.46 billion, a decrease of nearly 3 billion compared with the third quarter. Under this background, the non-performing rate decreased 9bp to 1.39% month on month. The risk assets continued to be cleared, and the non-performing rate was the best level since 2014. 5. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased month on month.
Insufficient annual report: the cost income ratio increased year-on-year. Q4 single quarter annualized cost income ratio was 45.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The cumulative management fee increased by 15.1% year-on-year, wider than the 9.0% year-on-year in the third quarter.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 40X/0.36X； PE3. 73x / 3.45x (pb0.63x/0.57x; pe4.97x / 4.49x of joint-stock bank), China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) has a good foundation of corporate strategic customers and institutional customers, and has a distinctive retail customer base. In the next three years, it will focus on strong nuclear development and deepen the collaborative integration of the group. It is suggested to pay attention to the future strategic transformation of the company.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 220818/242402/265971 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.0% / 9.8% / 9.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 59.988/64.720/69.721 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8% / 7.9/7.7%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.95% / 4.95% / 4.95%; The bond investment yield is 2.70% / 2.70% / 2.70%. 2. The interest payment rate of the company’s deposits is stable and good, and the adjusted interest payment rate is 2.00% / 2.00% / 2.00%. 3. The company’s stock risk continued to be cleared, the asset quality improved, the provision narrowed, and the adjusted provision expenditure / average loan was 1.72% / 1.74% / 1.76%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
