\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
Event: the company issued the annual report for 21 years.
The revenue is moving forward steadily, and the gross profit margin can be improved. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%. Q4 single quarter revenue was 970 million yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year. The single quarter revenue reached a new high in the whole year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, which decreased year-on-year and month on month, mainly due to the withdrawal of equity incentive expenses. Due to the impact of the general environment such as the rise in the price of electricity and raw materials, the profit of 21 years was squeezed in the short term, and the annual gross profit margin decreased by 1.9pct to 26%. With the relief of upstream cost pressure and the improvement and upgrading of the company's product structure, the improvement of profitability in 22 years can be expected.
Aluminum electrolytic capacitor: the demand for new energy and industrial control is strong, and the development of new products is smooth. Benefiting from the strong demand in new energy, industrial control and other fields, the company's revenue of aluminum electrolytic capacitor in 21 years was 2.85 billion, yoy + 39%, exceeding our expectation. Seven of the top 10 photovoltaic inverter manufacturers in the world have become company users, and the consumption of this segment market has reached 15% of the operating revenue. At present, the supply of solid-state electrolytic capacitor and solid-state electrolytic capacitor (ml5g) and solid-state display capacitor (MLG) has been steadily expanded in China, and has become an important new product in the future.
Thin film capacitor ushered in the performance acceleration inflection point: seizing the rapid development opportunities of photovoltaic, electric vehicle and other industries, the company's thin film capacitor has formed batch delivery in the fields of photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles and military industry. With the continuous release of the company's new capacity, the business is entering a period of rapid growth.
The downstream application of super capacitor business is in full swing, and the performance can be expected for a long time: in 21 years, the company's super capacitor revenue was 240 million yuan, yoy + 47%, and the growth rate was lower than expected at the beginning of the year, mainly because the wind power bidding was lower than expected. Looking forward to 22 years, while consolidating and improving its market in smart meters, rail transit, power grid and other markets, the company is gradually opening applications in port machinery, mining equipment, power grid frequency modulation, oil to electricity, electric buses and other fields, with long-term growth prospects.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 0.79/1.07/1.45 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 0.83/1.08 yuan, mainly adjusting the business revenue and gross profit margin according to the annual report). According to the comparable company's 22-year 38 times PE valuation level, the corresponding target price is 30.02 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The introduction of thin film capacitors by customers is less than expected; The development of super capacitor customers is less than expected; Gross profit margin fluctuation risk.
