\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
Event overview. On March 24, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. The annual revenue was RMB 16.021 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 108.77%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 1.684 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 104.40%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 1.487 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 106.66%.
Excellent performance in Q4 of 22. Revenue and net profit: the company’s 2021q4 revenue was 4.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.30%, a month on month increase of 6.31%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 391 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%, a month on month decrease of 16.71%, and the net profit after deduction was 321 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.42% and a month on month decrease of 28.13%. Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 21.63%, year-on-year -10.89pct and month on month -5.83pct. Net interest rate: the net interest rate of 2021q4 was 9.13%, year-on-year -1.54% and month on month -2.62%.
The gross profit margin and net profit margin are slightly corrected, and the profitability in 22 years is expected to improve: the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 21 years are 25.68% and 10.64%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.13pct and 1.53pct. The reasons for the decrease are as follows: 1 The price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply, and the price adjustment mechanism has a certain lag; 2. The company’s overseas business accounted for 49.36% in 21 years, which was greatly affected by the exchange rate; 3. Adjust the product structure of auto parts business and increase the proportion of components; 4. The depreciation of a large amount of fixed assets input in the early stage is included in the cost, which affects the gross profit margin of the company; 5. Substantial increase in shipping costs; 6. The company’s strategic policy is to seize the market and solidify customers, with limited cost transmission. The negative factors of profit in 22 years have slowed down: 1 The impact of exchange rate fluctuations is reduced; 2. The effect of the company’s price adjustment mechanism appears; 3. Fixed cost dilution due to capacity improvement.
The revenue of auto zero business doubled, and energy storage brought a new level of growth. In 21 years, the company’s auto parts business achieved a revenue of 4.802 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94.50%, accounting for 29.98% of the total operating revenue. We predict that the company’s auto parts sector is expected to exceed 8 billion in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. The company cut into the field of new energy thermal management from parts and gradually developed to components and subsystems. In 21 years, the sales volume of new energy vehicle thermal management products reached 188118 million, with a year-on-year increase of 167.39%. At present, the company has successfully entered the supply chain of major customers in North America and reached strategic cooperation with customers such as Valeo, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Volvo, Toyota, GM, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC and Weilai. The company has full orders on hand. Using the existing key customer resources and thermal management accumulation, the company is expected to quickly enter the field of energy storage and temperature control, realize mass supply and shape the third growth line.
Air conditioning business has made steady progress, and commercial refrigeration has opened up new increments. In 21 years, the company’s air conditioning and refrigeration business achieved a revenue of 11.218 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.36%, accounting for 70.02% of the total operating revenue. With the normalization of the epidemic situation and the new increment of commercial cold chain brought by drug transportation and fresh food distribution, we expect the company’s air conditioning business to increase by 30% year-on-year in 22 years.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.286 billion, RMB 3.132 billion and RMB 4.191 billion, increasing by 35.8%, 37.0% and 33.8% at the same time, corresponding to the valuation of 27, 19 and 15 times PE. Considering the steady progress of the company’s auto zero + air conditioning business, we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of terminal new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The RMB appreciated significantly.
