\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 288 Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) )
Event: on March 24, the company announced that the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was RMB 25.0046671 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.7% / 4.2% respectively.
In 2021, it grew steadily in adverse circumstances, and the recovery of consumption and price increase promoted the significant acceleration of 21q4. In 2021, the revenue reached 25.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.7%. The steady growth of the whole year was mainly due to the good performance of 21q1 and 21q4; 21q4 achieved a revenue of 7.010 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.9%, mainly due to the slow repair of terminal consumption. Superimposed on the price increase announcement issued by the company in October, the channel prepared goods first to promote the rapid growth of revenue. In terms of products, the revenue of soy sauce / sauce / oyster sauce in 2021 was + 8.8% / 10.2% / 5.6% year-on-year, and that of other sketch categories was + 13.4% year-on-year. The core categories grew steadily, maintained the basic market, and actively cultivated the second growth curve for new businesses. In terms of subregions, the revenue of the Eastern / Southern / central / northern / western regions in 2021 was + 7.5% / 8.4% / 14.0% / 6.7% / 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of the eastern and northern regions was relatively low. It is expected that the flood in Henan and the epidemic in Nanjing repeatedly had a negative impact on channel goods preparation and terminal demand. In terms of channels, the number of dealers at the end of 2021 was 7430, an increase of 5% over the end of 2020. The northern region took the initiative to adjust channels, and the eastern and Southern markets carried out channel encryption. At the same time, the channel transformation was strengthened, and the online channel realized an income of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85.2%.
The price pressure of raw materials continued to highlight, and the profitability of the whole year decreased slightly. 1) Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 38.7%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.5pct, mainly due to the pressure of raw material price. The gross profit margin in 21q4 was 38.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.7pct, and the improvement of profitability by price increase was limited. 2) Expense ratio: in 2021, the sales expense ratio was 5.4%, year-on-year -0.6pct, and the management expense ratio was 1.6%, year-on-year -0.01pct, which basically remained stable. 3) Net interest rate: the net interest rate in 2021 was 26.7%, year-on-year -1.4pct, mainly due to the pressure of raw material price.
Outlook: Tamp the bottom and look forward to reversal. In the short term, although the price increase at the end of the 21st year hedged some cost pressures, considering the high base and the spread of the epidemic, the overall performance of 22q1 is expected to be stable. At the same time, the spread of the national epidemic in March led to the pressure on catering demand, and the fundamentals of 22q2 are expected to continue to bottom. In the medium and long term, as the terminal demand returns to the recovery trend, the superimposed price increase dividend continues to be cashed, and the company is expected to usher in a fundamental reversal.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 7.597/9.016/10.629 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.9% / 18.7% / 17.9%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.80/2.14/2.52. At present, the corresponding PE price is 50 / 42 / 36x. Considering that the company is a condiment platform company, it is expected to achieve performance growth through channel encryption and category expansion in the future. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: consumption recovery is less than expected, cost pressure is higher than expected, food safety problems, etc.
