\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 169 Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) )
Petrochemical equipment leader, transformation and new vitality
Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) was founded in 1953, with a history of nearly 70 years of oil refining and chemical equipment manufacturing. The company's R & D strength and equipment manufacturing capacity are very outstanding, and has continuously created a number of breakthroughs in the field of major technical equipment manufacturing. In addition, the company has formed a strategic layout of "four bases + Mobile factories", which can fully meet the company's development needs in terms of production capacity. At present, the company is transforming from traditional energy equipment manufacturing to new energy equipment manufacturing, and is committed to becoming an overall solution service provider of energy and chemical equipment with data insight and industrial integration ability.
Opportunities: policies continue to increase, and new energy has broad prospects
① photovoltaic industry: since 2020, stimulated by the continuous rise of silicon material price, silicon material enterprises have launched production expansion projects, driving the demand for polysilicon equipment used in silicon material production to increase significantly. According to our statistics, the production capacity of 564000 tons of silicon material put into operation in 2022 will bring more than 30 billion yuan of core equipment demand. ② Nuclear power industry: nuclear power policy is gradually turning positive. China's independent third-generation nuclear power is expected to achieve large-scale and batch development according to the approval rhythm of 6-8 units per year. It is expected that the investment in nuclear power equipment will reach more than 200 billion yuan during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In addition, by the end of 2020, China's pressurized water reactor nuclear power plants have generated 6432 tons of spent fuel. According to conservative calculation, by 2035, the cumulative amount of spent fuel will reach 34600 tons, while the first set of spent fuel treatment capacity under construction is only 200 tons / year. It is urgent to solve the problems of transportation, storage and post-treatment of spent fuel. ③ Hydrogen energy industry: the recent top-level plan has been issued frequently. The outline of the 14th five year plan released in March 2021 lists hydrogen energy and energy storage as one of the six future industries in the future. It is expected that the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan by 2025.
Layout: enter new energy equipment manufacturing and look forward to high growth in the future
① polysilicon equipment: the cold hydrogenation reactor, reduction furnace, heat exchanger, tower and spherical tank that the company can provide account for about 50% of the investment in core equipment for silicon material production. By the end of 2021, the company's orders on hand exceeded 600 million yuan, fully benefiting from the wave of silicon material production expansion. It is expected that the revenue will increase by more than three times this year. ② Nuclear power equipment: the company has three civil nuclear safety equipment qualifications and a class I radioactive goods transportation container manufacturing license, which is expected to fully benefit from the upswing of the nuclear power industry. In addition, CNNC Jiahua has unique location advantages in the construction of CNNC Gansu Nuclear Technology Industrial Park, a major national project. The company acquired CNNC Jiahua in October 2021 and will fully enter the nuclear fuel storage and transportation and spent fuel reprocessing market with the help of its resource endowment. ③ Hydrogen energy equipment: the company has a forward-looking layout in the upstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain, mainly providing coal hydrogen production equipment, low-pressure hydrogen storage spherical tanks and microchannel heat exchangers (PCHE) for hydrogenation stations, and is committed to establishing competitive advantages in market segments. At present, the company is actively developing new products to complete the card layout of key links in the hydrogen energy industry chain as soon as possible and form a first mover advantage.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.626 billion yuan, 6.568 billion yuan and 7.320 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.20, 0.27 and 0.37 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 44, 33 and 24 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Risks that the progress of raised investment projects is less than expected, the expansion of silicon production is less than expected, the development of nuclear power is less than expected, and the expansion of hydrogen energy is less than expected.
