\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Events
On the evening of March 24, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 4.478 billion yuan, an increase of 57.31% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, an increase of 160.6% at the same time; Deduction of non RMB 122 million, an increase of 173.7% at the same time.
Key investment points
In the fourth quarter, it accelerated month on month, and the normal temperature cheese stick contributed
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 4.478 billion yuan, an increase of 57.31% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, an increase of 160.6% at the same time; Deduction of non RMB 122 million, an increase of 173.7% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 1.334 billion yuan, an increase of 37.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, an increase of 72.7% at the same time. Revenue and profits accelerated month on month in the fourth quarter, and normal temperature cheese sticks also contributed in the fourth quarter. We expect to contribute 200300 million revenue.
The gross profit margin was 38.2% (with an increase of 2pct) in 2021, of which 39.2% (with an increase of 6pct) in 2021q4, which is due to the increase of gross profit margin caused by the upgrading of cheese sector structure. The net profit margin in 2021 was 4.33% (with an increase of 1.7pct), of which 2021q4 was 2.77% (with an increase of 1.2pct), which was due to the increase of gross profit margin. In 2021, the sales expense was 1.159 billion yuan (an increase of 63% at the same time), which was due to the rapid growth of cheese business. The company’s channel investment and brand construction led to the increase of advertising and promotion expenses, and the increase of salesperson led to the increase of employee salary. In 2021, the management fee was 343 million yuan, an increase of 145% over the same period of last year, which was due to the increase of employee salary and equity incentive fee over the same period of last year.
Cheese sticks continue to work and the production capacity continues to expand
In terms of products, the revenue of cheese in 2021 was 3.335 billion yuan, an increase of 61% at the same time, accounting for 75% (an increase of 2pct at the same time), and the gross profit margin was 48.5% (an increase of 3PCT at the same time); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 1.053 billion yuan, an increase of 44% at the same time. In 2021, the revenue of liquid milk was 430 million yuan, with an increase of 4% and a gross profit margin of 14% (with a decrease of 4pct); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 111 million yuan, an increase of 2% at the same time. In 2021, the trade revenue was 704 million yuan, an increase of 97% and the gross profit margin was 4% (an increase of 2pct); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 166 million yuan, an increase of 27% at the same time.
In terms of the cheese segment, the revenue of instant nutrition series in 2021 was 2.51 billion yuan, an increase of 71% at the same time, accounting for 75% (an increase of 4pct at the same time), and the gross profit margin was 55% (an increase of 2pct at the same time); We expect the revenue of low-temperature cheese to be about 2.3 billion yuan. The revenue of family dining table series was 350 million yuan, an increase of 6% at the same time, accounting for 11% (decrease of 6pct at the same time), and the gross profit margin was 35% (increase of 1PCT at the same time); The revenue of catering industry was 470 million yuan, an increase of 73% at the same time, accounting for 14% (an increase of 1PCT at the same time), and the gross profit margin was 21% (an increase of 5pct at the same time).
In terms of production capacity, the total production capacity of cheese in 2021 will be 78400 tons, an increase of 107% at the same time. After the completion of the RMB 2.98 billion raised investment project, the company will form the capacity layout of five factories in four cities: Shanghai, Tianjin, Jilin and Changchun (including two factories in Shanghai). In 2021, the cheese output will be 56000 tons (56% increase at the same time), of which the cheese stick output will be 31300 tons (79% increase at the same time), and the capacity utilization rate will be 76%; The output of masurila is 15200 tons, with a same increase of 23% and a capacity utilization rate of 65%; The output of other cheeses was 9500 tons, an increase of 64% at the same time, and the capacity utilization rate was 67%. According to the split of volume and price, the sales volume of cheese in 2021 is 54600 tons (with an increase of 56%), and the corresponding ton price is 61100 yuan / ton (with an increase of 3.6%).
In terms of channels, the sales revenue of distribution channels in 2021 was 3.31 billion yuan, an increase of 54% at the same time; Among them, 2021q4 was 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 38% at the same time. The direct revenue was 460 million yuan, an increase of 33% at the same time; Among them, 2021q4 was 155 million yuan, an increase of 40% at the same time. The trade revenue was 700 million yuan, an increase of 97% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 170 million yuan, an increase of 27% at the same time. In 2021, the online revenue was 448 million yuan, doubling in the same period.
From a regional perspective, the revenue of North District in 2021 was 2.03 billion yuan, an increase of 51% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 620 million yuan, an increase of 37% at the same time. The revenue of the central region was 1.61 billion yuan, an increase of 60% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 510 million yuan, an increase of 58% at the same time. The revenue of the Southern District was 830 million yuan, an increase of 67% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 200 million yuan, an increase of 2% at the same time..
Strengthen the leading mind of cheese and make concerted efforts in the channels of brand products
In terms of brand, the company continues to strengthen brand construction, strengthen marketing and advertising, and consolidate the first brand position. Euromonitor data show that Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) ranked first in the Chinese cheese retail market with 27.7% in 2021. In terms of products, in terms of instant nutritional cheese, the company launched gold cheese sticks with 51% cheese content and pure milk fortified formula, as well as more high-end 0 added cheese sticks to meet the needs of consumers at different levels with a rich product layout. In September 2021, the company took the lead in launching the normal temperature cheese stick with high technical content in the industry, and the overall cheese stick market share was 36%. In terms of family table cheese, the “baked three treasures” composed of mozzarella, butter and cream cheese are enriched. The company launched the “baked cheese” with independent small packaging, the original imported small grain butter and Huanxin packaged cream cheese, and innovatively launched sweet cheese slices suitable for breakfast. In the cheese field of catering industry, we continue to maintain the leading position of domestic large package mozzarella cheese. We have also made great achievements in the fields of SOS cheese slices, cream, industrial cheese dice, cheese sauce and so on, and have been widely used in Western food, baking, tea, industry and Chinese food channels. In terms of channels, for TOC channels, the company adheres to the strategy of “refining at low temperature and expanding at normal temperature” and continuous innovation of e-commerce / new retail. By the end of 2021, the company had 5363 distributors (2444 in the north, 1610 in the middle and 1309 in the South), and its sales network covered about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) retail terminals, covering more than 96% of prefecture level cities and more than 85% of county-level cities in China. In terms of e-commerce business, Geng tmall, jd.com, pinduoduo and other traditional e-commerce platforms; Tiktok, Kwai, and other new business platform. We will actively expand new business forms such as HEMA fresh food and dingdong food shopping. In terms of catering industry, with the core strategy of “winning the terminal and leading Chinese food”, the company has cooperated with most of China’s leading enterprises in the field of Western express and baking, such as damelor catering, Burger King, 85 ° C and salia, as well as tea enterprises such as Naixue and Gu Ming, as well as well-known Chinese food enterprises such as grandma’s house. The company has more than 300 dealers nationwide to provide services for a wider range of customers.
In 2022, the company will take four major measures to ensure the realization of its objectives: 1) further enrich the cheese product structure and create a cheese category leader. In terms of retail products, the company will focus on promoting the further rapid growth of cheese sticks, “making wide at room temperature and refined at low temperature”, forming a relay development in product categories. In the catering cheese series, the company will further strengthen the development and promotion of cheese slices, cream cheese, cream, butter and other products on the basis of the existing advantageous product mozzarella cheese, and constantly enrich the product portfolio. 2) Strengthen brand building and upgrade the mental positioning of consumers. 2022 is the first year of the second five-year plan, comprehensively shaping the brand image and value appeal of “choose Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) ” and building ” Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) ” into a nationally famous cheese brand familiar to consumers. 3) Continue to expand marketing network coverage and create channel advantages of the whole system. For offline retail channels, under the guidance of “expanding at room temperature and refining at low temperature”, the company will continue to promote the sinking and deep cultivation of channels, strengthen the coverage of outlets such as national and regional supermarkets, convenience stores and mother and child stores, and ensure the growth of the number of retail terminal outlets. For e-commerce channels, the company has continuously consolidated the foundation of tmall and jd.com e-commerce platforms, and further improved the multi platform coverage of the whole network. The company will also actively embrace new retail channels such as social platform, takeout home platform, large supermarket online shopping and timely arrival platform. 4) Continuously improve the management level and lay a solid foundation for sustainable development. The company will continue to promote the construction of “digital intelligence and smart technology”, build a smart supply chain platform, build a digital middle platform, build a digital chemical plant, realize office automation, etc..
Profit forecast
We are optimistic that the company will continue to focus on cheese sticks, strengthen the minds of consumers and build a cheese category leader. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.8/1.26/1.85 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 46 / 29 / 20 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the promotion of normal temperature cheese sticks is less than expected, the growth of cheese sector is less than expected, and the market competition is intensified.
