\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 24 Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) )
Driven by independent brands, the revenue will grow steadily in 2021, waiting for the profitability to be repaired and maintaining the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 847 million yuan (+ 20.84%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 108 million yuan (+ 8.11%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 304 million yuan (+ 16.69%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan (+ 23.36%). Considering that the price of raw materials is still at a high level, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 134 / 170 / 209 million yuan (the original value in 20222023 is 138 / 179 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 0.62/0.78/0.96 yuan, and the current share price will be 29.7/23.5/19.1 times that of PE. In the long run, the independent brand has strong growth, and the release of cost pressure is expected to drive the profit repair and maintain the “buy” rating.
2021q4 independent brands continue to perform well, and the channel expansion of China’s offline experience stores has achieved initial results
In terms of business, in 2021, the company’s independent brand / OEM business achieved revenue of 632 million yuan / 215 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.15% / + 7.5% respectively. In a single quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 independent brand increased by + 28.28% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth. In terms of further splitting, the revenue of private brand overseas market in 2021 was + 95.63% year-on-year, and the brand performed well at sea. In terms of channels, China’s online / offline channels achieved revenue of 511 million yuan / 63 million yuan respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.18% / + 60.99% respectively. The obvious growth of offline channels is mainly due to the initial success of the expansion of independent brand experience stores. In 2021, the revenue of offline experience stores increased by + 233.8% year-on-year, and the revenue of single stores under refined operation increased.
The increase in the proportion of independent brands led to the rebound of gross profit margin in 2021q4, driving the marginal improvement of profitability
Due to the rise in raw material prices, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 49.45% (-1.98pcts). The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 50.08% (+ 3.37pcts), which was significantly improved, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of independent brands with high gross profit. On the expense side, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates in 2021 were 25.55% / 8.09% / 3.63% / 0.57% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.69pcts / – 0.05pcts / – 0.14pcts / – 0.15pcts respectively. The increase in the sales expense rate was mainly due to the company’s increasing brand and channel promotion. Under the comprehensive influence, the net interest rate in 2021 is 12.81% (-1.51pcts), and the net interest rate in 2021q4 is 13.01% (+ 0.71pcts).
Launch the equity incentive plan and be optimistic about the growth of long-term independent brands and the improvement of profitability
The company disclosed the restricted stock incentive plan, the incentive objects include senior executives and core backbones, and put forward higher requirements for the revenue and net profit growth of independent brands. The incentive plan is expected to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees. At the same time, considering the optimization of product structure and the stabilization and decline of raw material prices, we are optimistic about the development of independent brands and profit restoration.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Rising prices of raw materials; Sea freight rates remain high.
