\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 48 Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) )
Quickly grasp the tuyere of new energy vehicles, variable frequency air conditioning and wind power industry, and become a rising star in the industry, from transformation to take off. Founded in 2008, the company has quickly opened three rare earth permanent magnet application tracks of new energy vehicles, variable frequency air conditioning and wind power in four years. At present, it has entered the leading supply chains of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Nippon power, Bosch, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Midea, Gree and other industries, and has been widely recognized by downstream customers. After the completion of Baotou 8000 ton project in the second quarter, the company's blank production capacity will reach 23000 tons. In 2020, the output of high-end grain boundary penetration products will reach 4111 tons, accounting for 42.8% of the company's total output, ranking first in the world. Headquartered in Ganzhou, the company now has a production capacity of 15000 tons of Nd-Fe-B permanent magnet blanks. In January 2022, the 8000 ton production capacity of Baotou base was officially put into operation. The 3000 ton project in Ningbo is under construction to benchmark high-end magnetic materials & components. It is expected that a production capacity layout of 40000 tons will be formed in 2025. The recent completion of H-share public offering and listing will further promote the international strategic layout, and the growth momentum of the company is sufficient.
High performance rare earth permanent magnet materials have high competitive barriers, and the core competitive advantages of the company are prominent. The production process of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials is long, with high requirements for process stability. The downstream certification cycle is 3-5 years, and the customer viscosity is strong. The working environment of variable frequency air conditioning compressor and new energy vehicle drive motor puts forward higher requirements for the performance of Nd-Fe-B. the company's grain boundary penetration technology has obtained patents in China, Japan, the United States, Europe and other countries and regions. While improving the performance of rare earth permanent magnet, this technology can reduce the consumption of medium and heavy rare earth by 50% to 70%, and save more than 25% of the cost of rare earth raw materials. The company is a global leader in grain boundary penetration technology. At present, it has the production capacity of high-grade magnetic materials such as 56sh and 54uh. In 2020, the output of grain boundary penetration high-performance rare earth permanent magnet will be 4111 tons, accounting for 21.3%, ranking first in the world. In the future, the products will gradually move towards high-end, and the profitability of the company is expected to increase.
Core financial indicators are ahead of peers, highlighting the potential of high growth leaders. 1) Growth: in the past, relying on its strong technical advantages and stable quality, the company realized the rapid introduction and large volume of downstream customers of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners. From 2015 to 2020, the company's revenue CAGR reached 23.7%, the average of peers was 14%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 18.8%, and the average level of peers was only 1%; 2) Profitability: with the gradual increase in the proportion of high-end products, the gross profit margin stood at more than 20%, and the expense rate decreased steadily. The roe exceeded 15%, more than twice the average of peers.
Double carbon high prosperity track has long-term growth space, and high-performance rare earth magnetic materials are expected to maintain a tight balance in the medium term. In the context of the energy revolution, the growth trend in the field of new energy vehicles and wind power is clear, and the motor energy efficiency improvement plan points to the gradual improvement of the penetration rate of energy-saving motors, driving the long-term growth of the demand for rare earth magnetic materials. It is estimated that the demand side cagr17.5 will be in 20202025 3%, supply side cagr16 0%, high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials will still be in a tight balance, and the company is expected to enjoy the growth dividend of the industry as a leader.
Investment suggestion: the company continues to cultivate high-performance Nd-Fe-B magnetic materials, and the newly increased production capacity will enter a large-scale period in the near future. It is expected that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.275, 6.137 and 8.038 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 439, 623 and 978 million yuan, EPS will be 0.53, 0.75 and 1.17 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 59.4, 41.9 and 26.7 times respectively. It will be rated as "buy" for the first time.
Risk tips: risk of price rise of rare earth raw materials; The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk; Risks of major changes in the technical route; There is a risk that the production capacity falls short of expectations.
