\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.42%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 500 million, a year-on-year increase of – 4.6%. 4q21 achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.58 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 74.1%; Deduction of non parent net profit of 120000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 99.8%. The performance was slightly lower than our expectations.
Key points supporting rating
Revenue grew steadily, and profit growth was under pressure due to cost pressure. (1) In 2021, the company’s revenue achieved steady growth. We judged that the impact of the epidemic was weakened, which was good for the recovery of sales. At the same time, the expansion of night show and e-commerce channels brought new increment. (2) In 2021, the high prices of barley, glass bottles, aluminum ingots and other raw materials have brought great cost pressure. The company’s annual gross profit margin was 45.0%, a year-on-year increase of -5.2pct. Excluding the impact of non recurring profit and loss (mainly the profit and loss on the disposal of non current assets), the company deducted non attributable net profit of – 4.6% year-on-year in 2021. (3) In 2021, the company’s sales expense ratio was 15.5%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.0pct; The management expense ratio was 7.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.6pct; The R & D expense rate was 3.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pct, and the overall expense rate decreased.
The high-end strategy has been continuously promoted, and the product structure has been optimized. (1) In 2021, the company’s beer sales reached 1276300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 6.41%, slightly higher than the industry average. Focusing on the “3 + n” brand strategy, the company promoted the upgrading of product structure. The revenue of high-end products increased by + 15.8% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased by 4.3pct to 55.4% year-on-year. In terms of product strategy, the company focused on medium and high-end products such as pure draft beer and canned beer. The sales volume of pure draft beer accounted for 44.9%, year-on-year + 4.1pct, and the sales volume of canned products accounted for 32.2%, year-on-year + 0.8pct. The sales volume of 97 pure production of high-end core products was 157000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 103%. In addition, the company optimized 7 products and developed 9 products to further optimize the product structure. (2) In 2021, the company’s price per ton of wine reached 3362 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of – 0.7%. We judge that although the product structure has been improved, the market competition in South China is fierce, and the company has given certain discounts to dealers and terminals. In the later stage, with the continuous upgrading of product structure, the price per ton of wine is expected to continue to rise.
Outlook: the epidemic situation and cost factors have brought short-term disturbances, and the high-end strategy is still the main line of growth. (1) In the short term, the epidemic has repeatedly had a negative impact on beer consumption. We judge that the sales growth in the first quarter is under pressure. In addition, the prices of major raw materials such as barley and glass bottles remain high, and short-term cost pressures remain. (2) In the long run, high-end strategy is still the main line of growth. In terms of products, the company will continue to promote the high-end strategy, build a “3 + n” product portfolio of Xuebao + Chunsheng + Pearl River + characteristic products, and establish a diversified, high-end and characteristic brand image. In terms of channels, on the basis of consolidating traditional advantageous channels, the company will carry out reform and innovation in catering, night show, e-commerce and other channels to find new growth points. In terms of corporate governance, the company will use innovative management means to comprehensively improve the enterprise management ability and level and realize the improvement of operation efficiency. We believe that the company has a solid foundation in the South China market and basically has a good overall orientation. We are optimistic about the continuous and steady growth of the company’s revenue and profit.
Valuation
According to the annual report, we revised the previous profit forecast and expected EPS of 0.32, 0.34 and 0.37 yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%, + 9.0% and + 8.4%, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuated, and the expansion of new products was less than expected.
