\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 396 Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) )
Events:
The company released its annual report for 21 years, with a revenue of 13.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.59%; Deduct non net profit of 496 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.65%.
Our comments are as follows:
1. The short-term revenue is lower than expected, the revenue growth rate is significantly improved, and the future development can be expected.
The revenue increased significantly year-on-year. Specifically, 1) the revenue of network terminals was 1.153 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.44%. The penetration of thin clients and desktop cloud applications continued to improve, won the title of market share, and paid close attention to the wave of localization of Xinchuang; 2) The revenue of enterprise network equipment was 8.716 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.18%. The demand for network equipment benefited from the growth of traffic and the trend of switch white box; 3) The revenue of communication products was 1.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.54%. The epidemic has driven the use of video and teleconference, and expanded the incremental market for a long time. 4) the revenue of other businesses was 1.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.04%, and the revenue continued to grow steadily.
2. The cost increases synchronously with the scale expansion, and the profitability has room to improve.
From the cost side, the overall gross profit margin of the company in 21 years decreased by 0.84pct compared with that in 2020, including 22.17% (- 5.63pp) of network terminals, 39.11% (- 0.02pp) of enterprise network equipment, 22.71% (- 2.66pp) of communication products and 28.93% (- 2.53%) of other products. On the expense side: with the growth of the company’s operating revenue, the sales expenses and management expenses increase correspondingly with the expansion of the scale, and the financial expenses decline significantly due to the year-on-year decline of exchange losses. We believe that with the gradual easing of upstream chip cost pressure and the company’s cost side control in the future, there is room for improvement in profitability.
3. One of the leaders in ICT field, benefiting from industry development + share expansion, and continuously focusing on cloud computing / ICT main products.
The company continues to lead the market share in the field of network equipment and smart cloud, and will benefit from the growth of traffic, the trend of white box and the localization of Xinchuang. Specifically:
1) with the development of 5g, Internet of things, cloud computing and other services, the global Internet data traffic is growing rapidly. IDC predicts that by 2025, the global data volume will increase to 175zb, and the demand for network equipment such as switches and routers will continue to increase under the growth of traffic. At the same time, the stimulation of digital economy and East West computing policies is also expected to drive the demand for network equipment. It is expected to benefit from the increase in the penetration rate of Chinese top 3 Ethernet switch manufacturers and the increase in the penetration rate of Chinese top 3 Ethernet switch industry.
2) there is a strong driving force for the development of China’s information and innovation industry. According to the white paper on the development of China’s information and innovation industry (2021), the market scale of China’s information and innovation industry will reach 300 billion yuan in 2021, and the total market scale will reach trillion yuan in the next three years. At the same time, the desktop cloud market is developing rapidly. IDC predicts that the compound growth rate of China’s thin passenger plane and desktop cloud terminal VDI market from 2021 to 2025 will be 7.2% and 8.2% respectively. The company’s shengteng Weixun launched a number of information and innovation machines and solutions, and was shortlisted for 16 information and innovation machines collected by the State Administration of Taxation in batch. At the same time, the company’s desktop cloud terminal VDI market accounted for the first in China (share 20.3%), and the thin client market accounted for the first in Asia Pacific (share 34.8%), and achieved ten consecutive titles. As a leading manufacturer in the field, it will deeply benefit from the development of Xinchuang + the improvement of desktop cloud penetration.
Investment advice and profit forecast:
On the whole, thanks to the growth of data traffic + the improvement of white box penetration rate of data center, which drives the demand for network equipment, and the improvement of desktop cloud penetration rate + the development of Xinchuang, which drives the continuous growth of cloud desktop business, the company, as a leading manufacturer in the field, continues to expand its market share and maintain a strong driving force for development in the future. Considering the cost pressure of upstream chips and the impact of the epidemic on global production demand, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years is adjusted to 680 million and 820 million yuan (the original value is 800 million / 960 million yuan), and it is expected to be 990 million yuan in 24 years, corresponding to 19 times the price earnings ratio in 22 years and 16 times the price earnings ratio in 23 years. The rating of “overweight” is reiterated.
Risk tip: cost reduction and efficiency increase are slower than expected, the impact of the global epidemic is higher than expected, the penetration of cloud products is lower than expected, the market competition is higher than expected, and the downstream demand is lower than expected
