\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 596 Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 18.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.45%, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 354.56%, deducting non net profit of 2.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 567.10%; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 5.66 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 82.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 172.06%. At the same time, it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 of 22 will be 1.15-1.25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 313% to 349%.
The price of main products rose sharply and the operating performance reached a new high. In 2021, affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and the continuous fermentation of covid-19 epidemic, the price of bulk commodities soared. In 21 years, the average prices of metal silicon, silicone and glyphosate were 23000 yuan / ton, 32000 yuan / ton and 48000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 95%, 70% and 106%. Based on the original industrial basis of recycling "chlorine, silicon and phosphorus", the company gives full play to the advantages of the integration of the whole industrial chain, actively expands the upstream and downstream market share, the product sales volume has increased significantly, and the business performance has reached a new high.
The advantages of integrated operation are highlighted, the proportion of terminal business is increased, and the periodic attribute is gradually erased. Focusing on the organic silicon business, the company carried out "industrial chain upward, value chain improvement and supply chain coordination", realized the self supply of metal silicon in the upstream and the development of medium and high-end products in the downstream, and the company's terminal business entered the fast lane. During the reporting period, the company's silicon-based terminals and special silane products achieved an operating revenue of 3.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%, the terminal conversion rate reached more than 40%, and the medium and high-end products in the terminal products accounted for 44%. By the end of 2021, the company had nearly 3000 varieties of silicone end products, and the carrier value of the end terminal company was prominent; At the same time, the company actively arranges new energy tracks, with an existing capacity of 65000 tons of trichlorosilane and 30000 tons of photovoltaic sealant; In terms of industrial integration, the company currently has an industrial silicon production capacity of 100000 t / A. in addition to the 100000 t / a new production capacity under construction in Yanjin, Yunnan, the company has recently successively implemented the 65000 T / a construction project in Pingwu, Sichuan and the 54000 T / a acquisition project in Jingcheng, Yunnan. At that time, the company's industrial silicon production capacity will reach more than 300000 t / A. at the same time, the company has 80 million tons of silicon ore reserves in Yanjin, Yunnan. At present, the phase I project has fully reached production capacity. With the continuous advancement of integrated layout and the increase of the proportion of end products, the company's cycle attribute is expected to gradually weaken.
Glyphosate landscape continues to be high, and the company's profit is expected to maintain a high level. Since 2020, the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price has been rising, and the planting enthusiasm of downstream farmers has increased, driving the collective rise in the price of agricultural related products; After the supply side reform in the past few years, the concentration of glyphosate industry has increased significantly. At present, it is in the peak procurement season, with strong demand in overseas markets and tight supply-demand relationship. At present, the market price of glyphosate in East China is 64000 yuan / ton, and the product price difference remains at a high level. The company is a leading enterprise in China's Glyphosate industry, with an existing glyphosate technical production capacity of 80000 tons / year, which is expected to continue to maintain a good profit level.
"Buy" rating for the first time. The company is deeply engaged in phosphorus and silicon industries. At the current time, the prosperity of the industry continues to be high and the profitability is strong. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of the company's integration strategy, the proportion of terminal products continues to increase, opening up a "third battlefield" with new energy application as the main scene. In the long run, the company's growth attribute continues to strengthen, and the cycle attribute is expected to gradually weaken. It is estimated that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.49 billion / 4.48 billion / 5.53 billion in 22-24 years, and EPS 4.5 billion 27 / 5.47/6.75 yuan, corresponding to pE6 4 / 5.0 / 4.1 times, with "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: product prices fall, raw material prices fluctuate, and project promotion fails to meet expectations
