\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 73 Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) )
Key investment points
Company profile: an operator of integrated supply chain and integrated logistics solutions in the consumer electronics industry. Founded in 2011, the company is an operator and manager of supply chain solutions in the consumer electronics industry. It mainly provides global technology manufacturing enterprises with comprehensive logistics solutions integrating transportation, warehousing, customs and other value-added services. In terms of performance, the gross profit margin of the company remained above 27% from 2017 to 2021, and the net profit margin of sales increased year by year. The net profit margins in 20172021 were 10.27%, 10.62%, 14.64%, 18.86% and 21.97% respectively; Roe has also been maintained at more than 15%. In terms of finance, the operating net cash flow is good, the asset liability ratio is less than 20%, and the financial position is very stable. In 2021, the company distributed a cash dividend of 60 million yuan and increased 6 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve.
Industry analysis: Although the market space is broad, it is developing in the direction of fragmentation, refinement and specialization. We expect that the compound growth rate of China's logistics market scale, outsourcing logistics market scale and integrated supply chain logistics market scale from 2020 to 2025 will be 6.2%, 7.1% and 9.5% respectively, with broad market space. Among them, integrated supply chain logistics is the inevitable trend of the development of logistics industry, which is expected to develop continuously and rapidly with the support of policies. By 2020, the largest integrated supply chain logistics service market is automobile, FMCG, clothing and 3C electronics. We expect that the fastest growing fields from 2020 to 2025 will be fresh food, FMCG and clothing, among which consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, household appliances and medical devices are the key business directions of the company. 1) Relying on Lenovo Group, the company is deeply engaged in the consumer electronics industry. In 2021, the company's revenue from Lenovo Group accounted for 40.44% of its revenue. 2) The company has rapidly developed the new energy vehicle business by cutting into the ideal vehicle. The ideal vehicle has become the second largest customer of the company in 2021. 3) In addition, the company continues to expand the supply chain logistics service market in other manufacturing fields. In 2021, the company successfully operated Midea's overseas spare parts warehouse (home appliance industry) and Corning China Logistics Distribution Center (special materials, glass, etc.).
Value judgment: Fine Management + informatization level + professional team + cross industry replication, as few as morning stars. 1) Fine management. The actual controller has more than 20 years of experience in operational research and financial management, which is reflected in the stable, solid and sufficient reserves in the quality of statements. 2) In terms of information investment, the company complies with the development trend of the industry, pays attention to the investment of intelligent logistics equipment for a long time, constructs automatic logistics warehousing, independently designs and develops information systems including "ShenZhang system", and leads the industry in terms of automation, intelligence and digitization. 3) Professional team: the core senior management team is mainly the post-80s generation, and has more than 10 years of working experience in different fields (market, it technology and Finance), with high professional level and full effort. The company binds the interests of the team in market-oriented ways such as employee stock ownership, and the human efficiency is improved year by year. 4) Cross industry replication, the company's customer base has gradually expanded from 3C electronics to new energy vehicles, special materials, the Internet, household appliances, photovoltaic and other industries. The core reason is that the company continues to break its own ability boundary from standardization to customization and then to standardized business system.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.59, 3.42 and 4.34 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18, 14 and 11 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the dependence on key customers and epidemic situation make the business of 3C electronics industry fail to meet expectations; Risks of new energy vehicle shipments falling short of expectations, etc
