\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
Event: on March 24, the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 412 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.06%. At the same time, the company issued a profit distribution plan and distributed a cash dividend of 0.12 yuan / share to all shareholders.
The downstream demand boom is improving, and the rise in the price of raw materials drives down profits: the revenue in 2021 is 3.55 billion yuan, yoy + 34.71%, mainly due to the rapid growth of demand in new energy (automobile, photovoltaic), industrial control and other fields, as well as the continuous expansion of the company's production capacity; The gross profit margin is 25.93%, yoy-1.94pct, and the net profit margin is 12.25%, yoy-1.90pct, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the sharp rise in the price of electricity for foil. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 967 million yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 9.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 109 million yuan, yoy-28.65%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 98 million yuan, yoy + 8.30%.
The three major capacitor businesses go hand in hand, and the advantages of self-sufficiency in materials are clear:
(1) aluminum electrolytic capacitor: the demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, industrial control and other fields is high. In 2021, the business achieved a revenue of 2.847 billion yuan, yoy + 38.73%, accounting for 80.21% of the revenue; Gross profit margin 26.97%, yoy-2.41%. Specifically, the revenue of high-end industrial products accounts for more than 75%, and the revenue of photovoltaic products accounts for 15%. Seven of the top ten manufacturers of photovoltaic inverters in the world have become corporate customers; The average monthly shipment of MLPC reached 6.6 million (with a production capacity of 8 million / month). The self supply rate of the company's electrode foil reached 75%, and it was sold abroad. In 2021, the revenue of the electrode foil business was 189 million yuan, yoy-6.56%; Gross profit margin 17.90%, yoy + 0.75%. Double control power rationing has an impact on production capacity and product performance. The increase of electricity price since 21q3 has increased the cost of foil by more than 50%. The company ensures the material supply and cost performance of capacitors by optimizing product structure and other measures.
(2) thin film capacitor: in 2021, the revenue will reach 224 million yuan, yoy + 15.33%, and the increment mainly comes from photovoltaic and vehicle mounted fields; The gross profit margin is 20.62%, yoy － 0.34%. In the photovoltaic field, the box type thin film capacitor production line for distributed photovoltaic newly built by the subsidiary Xinjiang haipower realized mass production, and the output of self-produced metallized film increased by 50%; In the field of vehicle mounted, Haimei electronic thin film capacitor for electric vehicle drive won the bid for many vehicle enterprises and electric drive plants.
(3) super capacitor: revenue of 240 million yuan in 2021, yoy + 47.34%; The gross profit margin is 23.86%, yoy － 1.89%. The application of smart meters, rail transit, power grid and other mature markets has been further improved, and has entered the fields of port machinery, mining equipment, power grid frequency modulation, oil to electricity, electric buses and so on. In terms of materials, the company has developed a variety of super capacity electrodes to effectively ensure the performance, quality and supply of materials.
The product structure continues to be high-end and the capacity expansion is advancing steadily: the company publicly stated in the interactive investor Q & A that it plans to expand the capacity by more than 25% in 2022. From the perspective of three capacitor product lines: (1) aluminum electrolytic capacitor: the production capacity of ox horn aluminum electrolytic capacitor continues to increase, the trial production of MLPC and solid-liquid hybrid capacitor is smooth, which has laid the foundation for large-scale technical transformation and production expansion, and the on-board project has been started. (2) Thin film capacitors: in 2016, a fixed increase of 400 million yuan was raised to invest in the production expansion project of high-voltage and high-capacity thin film capacitors. After reaching the production capacity, the annual new production capacity is 1 million high-voltage thin film capacitors and 1800 tons of metallized films; By the end of 2021, about 201 million yuan had been invested, accounting for 50.15% of the total investment. (3) Super capacitor: in 2016, a fixed increase of 800 million yuan was raised to invest in the industrialization project of super capacitor. After reaching the production capacity, the annual new production capacity is 3 million wh double-layer capacitor and 25 million wh lithium-ion capacitor; By the end of 2021, about 587 million yuan had been invested, accounting for 73.37% of the total investment.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.546 billion yuan, 5.939 billion yuan and 7.569 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 598 million yuan, 810 million yuan and 1.076 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.72 yuan, 0.98 yuan and 1.30 yuan respectively, corresponding to 33.2 times, 24.5 times and 18.5 times of PE respectively, which is rated as "Buy-A" investment.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price rise; Risk of power and production restriction; The production expansion progress is less than expected; Customer expansion was less than expected.
