Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) sign major contracts, plan ahead and rank first in the industry
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) sign major sales contracts to lock in sales and ensure future industry position. On March 21, 2022, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) issued an announcement and signed a polysilicon sales agreement with Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) which agreed that the total sales volume in two years was 203600 tons. According to the calculation of 245300 yuan / ton, the total sales volume is expected to be about 44.2 billion yuan (excluding tax). In 2022 and 2023, the annual procurement volume is 101800 tons, and the price is negotiated monthly. The company has sufficient orders on hand. It is estimated that the polysilicon sales volume of the company is expected to exceed 190000 tons and 300000 tons in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The procurement volume of this contract accounts for more than 50% and 33% respectively, which fully ensures the polysilicon shipment of the company in the future. In 2022, the silicon material is still in a tight balance. With the gradual release of production capacity, it is expected that the shortage of silicon material supply will be greatly alleviated from the end of 2022 to 2023, and the competition faced by the silicon material industry will intensify. At this time, the company locked in the large contract and long order, prepared for the next round of industry competition in advance, aiming at the long-term, and the company is expected to further open the gap with its peers and competitors.
Silicon material capacity release is full of elasticity, and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) endogenous growth is strong
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) silicon material has full capacity release flexibility, and the shipment volume is expected to continue to increase in the next two years. By the end of 2021, the company's polysilicon production capacity has reached 180000 tons. It is expected that the production capacity will exceed 230000 tons by the end of 2022. From 2021 to 2023, the company's polysilicon shipments are expected to exceed 100000, 19000 and 300000 tons respectively, with a compound growth rate of 70% and strong endogenous growth. In 2021, the global polysilicon output will be 631000 tons, and the company's market share will reach 15.8%. With the rapid release of the company's production capacity, the market share is expected to reach more than 20% in 2022 and about 30% in the long term, so as to realize the continuous improvement of the company's silicon market share. Since the beginning of 2022, the dense polysilicon material has increased slightly from 230000 yuan / ton to 243000 tons / ton. With the continuous release of new silicon material production capacity, we expect that the price is expected to gradually decline throughout the year, the competition among silicon material enterprises will gradually intensify, and the company is expected to continue to increase the market share of the industry through strong endogenous growth.
Sign a long order to ensure the safety of supply, and the photovoltaic king is expected to be stronger
Signing a long order to ensure the safety of the supply chain, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) is expected to consolidate the competitive advantage of the industry Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) the silicon wafer production capacity will reach 110gw by the end of 2021, and the silicon wafer production capacity is expected to reach 140 ~ 150gw by the end of 2022. The company's silicon wafer shipment volume is expected to reach 70gw in 2021 and is expected to exceed 90gw in 2022. This order accounts for more than 30% of the silicon material required by the company in 2022. In 2022, the new capacity of silicon wafer will exceed 290gw, and the silicon wafer link will face the situation of intensified competition. The company will lock in the long list of silicon materials this time and continue to strengthen the supply chain barriers. The long-term stable supply of silicon materials will help the company stabilize the market share of silicon wafer industry.
The mass production of new battery technology is imminent, and the company is expected to lead the development of the industry again Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) recently announced that it plans to invest in the project of single crystal silicon rod and chip with an annual output of 20GW, 30GW high-efficiency single crystal cell project and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project. We expect that the company's new battery is more suitable for distributed scenarios and will fully benefit from the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic. At the same time, the technology will greatly extend the life cycle of the company's perc battery, reduce the pressure of equipment depreciation and impairment, and create new profit points. The company's new battery is expected to become a benchmark product in the new generation of photovoltaic field.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the price of the industrial chain fluctuates sharply.
