Big wealth management continued to grow year-on-year, with life insurance under pressure and property insurance improving
(1) since the beginning of 2022, the net value of partial stock funds and the stock market have decreased significantly. We revised the first quarterly report of securities companies and the annual profit growth. The holding scale of public offering partial stock funds continued to grow year-on-year, which is expected to drive the profits of public offering funds and wealth management business lines of securities companies to maintain year-on-year growth. The meeting of the Finance Committee on March 16 boosted market confidence, and the improvement of risk appetite in the equity market was good for the securities sector. We first launched a big wealth management track with both short-term beta and long-term growth attributes. The valuations of leading targets such as China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) have safety margin and long-term investment value. (2) Affected by industry transformation, epidemic situation and high base, we expect NBV of listed life insurance to remain under pressure in the first quarter, and subsequent asset side improvement or valuation repair will be brought; The improvement of auto insurance is expected to drive the P & C data to exceed expectations and benefit the target China P & C. (3) Under the steady growth policy, we are optimistic about the value target Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which has steady profit growth and high dividend.
Securities companies: wealth management track is the strongest beta of securities companies at present, with growth attributes
Since the beginning of 2022, the stock market has fluctuated significantly, and the investment income of securities companies may decline significantly year-on-year. We have revised down the profits of securities companies for the whole year and the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of listed securities companies in 2022q1 is - 11.6% year-on-year and the annualized roe is 7.02%. The performance of the public fund business line has a high probability of year-on-year growth. It is expected that the average daily holding scale of partial stock funds in the whole market in 2022q1 will be + 19% year-on-year, which is expected to drive the revenue growth of the public fund business line of securities companies in the first quarter to exceed 20% year-on-year. The profit contribution of the target public funds in the big wealth management track is relatively high, and the profit growth rate may be better than the industry average. It is estimated that the net profit of China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) 2022q1 will be + 11% / - 3% / - 13% / - 5% respectively. The valuation of the brokerage sector is at the bottom of the bottom. The financial committee'statement on March 16 lifted confidence in the stock market, and the follow-up policy is expected to be more positive. The brokerage sector will fully benefit. We first push for the title of the big wealth management track with stronger beta attributes, and also look good on the subject of the big wealth management track with stronger beta attributes, and also bullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullibullion on on undervundervvaluation leaders. Recommend China stock market news, and recommend China stock market news, 00077 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 77777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 7 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 777777777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 7 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 7777777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 7777777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 77777 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) 7777777 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) \ (H shares).
Insurance: the transformation of life insurance, clearing the backward production capacity, and driving the improvement of property insurance
NBV of listed insurance companies may be under pressure in the first quarter of 2022, and the auto insurance premium may exceed expectations. Considering that the manpower scale is low and the guarantee demand is still difficult to develop, NBV of listed insurance companies may still be under pressure in the first quarter of 2022. NBV of most head insurance companies in the first quarter may be in the range of - 20% to - 40% year-on-year, and the performance inflection point may be affected by the base in the second half of 2022. However, the transformation inflection point still needs to be observed. We expect to observe the marginal improvement of development mode, manpower and production capacity as early as the first quarter of 2023. The increase of average vehicle premium and the scale of stock vehicles may bring industrial premium improvement to vehicle insurance, and the advantages of head insurance enterprises in pricing, service and data may lead to the optimization of market pattern, and the market concentration may be improved. In the short term, the liability side business performance is relatively good and the asset side flexibility is relatively large. Insurance companies may benefit from Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has obvious comprehensive financial advantages and gradually promotes the resolution of real estate risks, and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China property insurance; In the long run, the transformation attitude is firm. Companies with successful transformation experience are expected to take the lead in successful transformation. China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
