Core view
Macro: both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and China’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the first two months. Abroad: the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. China: from January to February, the industrial added value increased by 7.5% year-on-year; The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7 year-on-year; Investment in fixed assets increased by 12.2% year-on-year.
Steel: the output of steel enterprises generally decreased in the first two months, and the production restriction in the North was basically lifted. This week, the output of rebar increased slightly by 1.45% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 7.00% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 73.2%, with a slight increase of 1.32pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week, and the price of new energy vehicles increased by 7. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 489500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 1.87% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 503000 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.2% month on month, and the growth rate slowed down. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased slightly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 increased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $37115 / ton, down 23.04% month on month.
Industrial metals: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and industrial metals stopped falling and rebounded. This week, TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 7.70% month on month. The global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in November month on month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 90% in January, with a slight increase of 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 1.03% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia increased month on month this week.
Gold: US sanctions against Uganda’s largest gold refiner may shake the global gold supply chain. This week, Comex gold price decreased significantly by 4.01% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 4.59% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.14%, up slightly by 0.14pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
