Tax exemption: in March, the passenger flow in Hainan decreased significantly year-on-year, and the net profit of China tax exemption Q1 is expected to decrease slightly year-on-year
According to the company's announcement, from January to February 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was about 18.3%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6pct, and a year-on-year increase of about 0.8pct after excluding the impact of income tax preference. We believe that it is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of individual tourists in Hainan during the peak tourism season from January to February, the recovery of China free Hainan universal discount to 85%, and the company began to ask for benefits from management and pay attention to the assessment of profit indicators this year.
According to nanhai.com, Haikou Meilan Airport and Sanya Fenghuang airport will transport 2460000 and 2.54 million passengers respectively in 40 days (1.17-2.25) of spring transportation in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 37% and 24% respectively; According to the disclosure of Haikou Meilan Airport, affected by the epidemic in many local places, the average daily passenger volume from March 1 to 22 was about 39561, down about 40% year-on-year. We expect the passenger volume of Q1 Meilan Airport to drop slightly year-on-year. Considering that Sanya Haitang Bay duty-free store closed for 4.5 days in March, we estimate that the income of China free 22q1 is about 17 billion yuan / - 6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 2.78 billion yuan / - 2%.
Hotel: Spring Festival transportation is a traditional off-season. Affected by the epidemic in March, the performance of 22q1 is under pressure
According to STR data, from January to February 2022, China Hotel occ43 Year on year + 6pc3.4%; ADR415. 8 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%; RevPAR180. 6 yuan / night, year-on-year + 17.6%. In March, the epidemic is now spreading in many places across the country. Among the first tier cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen are seriously affected by the epidemic. We expect that the OCC of the hotel industry will decline significantly year-on-year in March.
(1) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the RevPAR of domestic hotels of 21q1 company is 117 yuan. Considering the expansion of franchise stores against the trend, we expect the revenue of 22q1 company to be about 2.35 billion yuan / + 2%, and the loss to be about 200 million yuan, slightly expanding year-on-year. (2) Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : RevPAR of 21q1 company is 94 yuan. We expect that the company's 22q1 revenue is about 1.2 billion yuan / - 6%, and the loss is about 210 million yuan, expanding year-on-year. (3) Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : more than 80% of the company's hotels are located in the Yangtze River Delta. Q1 is obviously affected by the epidemic. Considering Junlan's consolidated statement, we expect the company's 22q1 revenue to be about 160 million yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be about 30 million yuan. (4) Huazhu group: RevPAR of domestic hotels of 21q1 company is about 138 yuan. According to the company's announcement and guidance, the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by about 13% year-on-year to 2.63 billion yuan, with a loss of about 300 million yuan, expanding year-on-year.
Aviation: the oil price is higher, the demand is impacted by the epidemic, and the loss of 22q1 is expected to expand year-on-year
The performance of Spring Festival transportation is better than that of last year. In March, the demand was greatly impacted by the local epidemic, and the oil price rose. It is expected that the performance of 22q1 airlines will be under pressure, and the loss may expand year-on-year. 1) During the 40 day spring festival transportation in 2022, the total number of civil aviation passengers reached 39.82 million, with a year-on-year increase of 21 years + 13%, 20 years + 2% and 19 years - 45%. 2) According to surging news reports, data released by the Civil Aviation Administration show that Chinese airlines lost 18.5 billion yuan from January to February of 22 years. 3) In March, the local epidemic in many places suppressed the travel demand. Considering that the passenger transport volume of Chinese routes in March 21 was + 3% year-on-year (the airline company was close to the profit and loss balance or even turned the loss into profit in a single month), we expect the loss of 22q1 airline company to expand year-on-year. 4) The CIF price of aviation kerosene imported from January to march of 22 was + 49%, + 55% and + 59% respectively year-on-year. In the cost structure of aviation companies, the cost of aviation fuel accounted for about 30%, and the higher oil price put pressure on the cost side; On March 23, the RMB appreciated by 0.3% compared with the end of the previous year, Q1 or contributed to the exchange gains.
(1) Air China Limited(601111) : from January to February of the year, the company's cumulative ask and RPK were + 11% and + 13% respectively year-on-year. Considering that the company's 22q1 flight volume is affected by the guarantee of the Winter Olympic Games and the two sessions, we expect the company's 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company to be about - 7.1 billion yuan. (2) China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) : from January to February of 22, the cumulative ask and RPK of the company were + 30% and + 33% respectively year-on-year. Considering the impact of Shenzhen epidemic, we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is about - 6.5 billion yuan. (3) China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) : from January to February of the year, the cumulative ask and RPK of the company increased by + 22% and + 21% respectively year on year. Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai base and the temporary suspension of its B737800 model due to a plane crash in late March (Accounting for about 30%), we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be about - 5.5 billion yuan. (4) Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : from January to February of 22, the cumulative ask and RPK of the company were + 30% and + 33% year-on-year respectively. Considering the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai base in March, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be about - 590 million yuan. (5) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : from January to February of the 22nd year, the cumulative ask and RPK of the company were + 11% and + 8% year-on-year respectively. Considering the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai base in March, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be about - 710 million yuan. (6) China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) : according to the data of flying standards, the average daily flight number of 21q3 company is about 186, and that of 22q1 is about 160. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is about - 200 million yuan.
Airports: affected by the local epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the loss of 22q1 may expand year-on-year
The passenger transport volume of civil aviation during the Spring Festival transportation was + 13% year-on-year, and the travel demand in March was affected by the local epidemic in many places. According to surging news reports, the data released by the Civil Aviation Administration show that Chinese airport enterprises lost 5.2 billion yuan from January to February of 22 years. We expect the loss of 22q1 listed airport to expand year-on-year.
(1) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) : the passenger throughput from January to February of 22 was + 13% year-on-year. We expect the revenue of 22q1 to be about - 20% year-on-year and the loss to be about 270 million yuan. (2) Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the passenger throughput from January to February of 22 was about + 46% compared with the same period. The number of take-off and landing sorties affected by the local epidemic decreased significantly in March. We expect the company's 22q1 revenue to be about - 17% and the loss to be about 600 million yuan. (3) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) : the passenger throughput from January to February of 22 was - 24% year-on-year. Considering the impact of the local epidemic, we expect that the revenue of 22q1 company was about - 43% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about - 180 million yuan.
Investment advice
"Recovery from the epidemic" is the clear investment mainline for 2022, with vaccination rates, special drugs, and other anti epidemic foundations such as vaccination rates and special drugs continuing to strengthen. Based on demand recovery expectations, expected recovery from demand, and expected recovery, the "recovery from the epidemic" is the clear investment mainline for 2022. The "recovery from the epidemic" is the clear investment mainline for 2022. The foundation of vaccination rates, specific drugs and other anti epidemic fundamentals continues to strengthen. Based on demand recovery expectations, the plight of the travel industry chain can be reversed, with 6 Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) 00004 \ , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) .
Risk tips: safety accident risk, covid-19 epidemic development is less than expected, demand is less than expected, oil remittance fluctuates greatly, etc.
