Recent market review
From February 21, 2022 to March 23, 2022, CSI 300 fell by 8.06%, the machinery sector fell by 7.65%, outperforming the market by 0.41 percentage points, ranking 17th among all primary industries of Shenwan, and 19 sub industries fell by 3. Among them, the sub industries with better performance were refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, abrasive, energy and heavy equipment, up 4.45%, 1.92% and 0.05% respectively.
As of March 23, 2022, the industry’s TTM P / E ratio is 11 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 93%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, 24483 excavators of various types were sold in February, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, of which 17052 were sold in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%; 7431 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%. In February, 8882 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, including 5669 loaders in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year increase of 6.02%; 6694 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. In terms of forklift sales, the sales volume of forklifts in the whole industry in February 2022 was 71373, with a year-on-year increase of 71.3%. From the starting hours of excavators, the starting hours of Komatsu in February increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 47.9 hours under the influence of seasonal factors. The number of startup hours in other major regions of the world has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the number of startup hours in Japan was 58.2 hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The number of startup hours in Europe was 70.4 hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; Indonesia started 186.8 hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%; North America experienced a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and 63.4% respectively.
In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) aspect, the fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry increased by 20.9% year-on-year in February. In the main downstream application scenarios, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in automobile manufacturing industry increased from 3.7% year-on-year in 2021 to 11.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2022. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 3C industry increased by 12.8 percentage points over the whole year last year, to 35.1%. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of fixed asset investment in downstream manufacturing industry, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) cumulative output in the first two months of 2022 was 76381 units, with a year-on-year increase of 29.6%. In the future, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic and the continuous recovery of manufacturing investment, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production and marketing data will continue to improve, and the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial chain will usher in a golden period of domestic substitution.
Investment strategy
On March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened in Beijing. The premier of the State Council delivered a government work report to the Congress. According to the 2022 government work report and the proposals of the two sessions, the machinery and equipment industry is suggested to pay attention to the following main investment lines:
1. Expand effective investment and appropriately carry out advanced infrastructure investment. In terms of construction machinery, according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in February was 24483, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. In February, the data of power on hours in China warmed up, and the demand remained improved month on month. We believe that with the entry of March, the influence of seasonal factors in the industry will subside. Under the main line of Q2, the marginal demand of the machinery industry is expected to improve, and the marginal demand of the machinery industry is expected to improve one after another. In 2022, the construction machinery market will show a trend of low before high. In this expectation, we suggest to focus on the repair opportunities for the oversold of industry leaders under the steady growth policy in the short term, such as the leading construction machinery manufacturer Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ), and the core parts manufacturer Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ).
\u3000\u30002. Orderly promote carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. The expression of carbon peak in the work report has changed from “doing a solid job” in 2021 to “orderly promotion”. The work report proposed that the energy consumption intensity target should be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control. This will effectively alleviate the constraints of dual control of energy consumption on China’s economic growth, accelerate the transformation of clean energy instead of traditional energy, and be optimistic about the investment opportunities of photovoltaic equipment industry under the high boom of photovoltaic industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ( Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ).
\u3000\u30003. Adhere to the innovation driven development strategy and consolidate and expand the foundation of the real economy. The Ministry of industry and information technology has previously led the introduction of two favorable plans, which clearly put forward the goal of an average annual growth of 20% in industry revenue and doubling the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density of manufacturing industry by 2025. Chinese Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) enterprises are limited by technical barriers, their products are generally concentrated in the field of medium and low-end products, and their bargaining power is not strong. The introduction of the two plans will accelerate the process of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry moving towards high-end. In addition, with the gradual decline of China’s demographic dividend and the continuous decline of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) prices, the price scissors difference between the two has been significantly reduced, and machine replacement will become an important trend of manufacturing transformation in the future. In this process, it is suggested to pay attention to domestic Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) ( Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) ), Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) ( Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) ), reducer leaders Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ( Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ).
Risk warning: the risk of global spread of the epidemic; The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Global trade friction risk.
