Since 2022, car companies have successively raised the prices of their new energy vehicles to cope with the pressure of rising costs, generally in the range of 5% - 15%. Tesla's price adjustment is the most frequent, and has been adjusted several times since 2021. On December 31, 2021, the price of Model3 rear wheel drive sector / modely rear wheel drive version increased by 10000 yuan / 21000 yuan respectively, on March 10, 2022, the price of Model3 high-performance version, modely long-life version and high-performance version increased by 10000 yuan respectively, and on March 15, the price increased by 18000 yuan, 18000 yuan and 20000 yuan respectively.
Main reasons for vehicle price increase:
Subsidy decline: the subsidy for new energy vehicles declined by 30% compared with last year, the policy dividend gradually disappeared, part of the cost of the main engine factory was transferred to consumers, and the impact of medium and low-end models was greater.
Chip shortage: the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on chip supply is relatively limited, and the supply chains of major chip related manufacturers in the world have not been affected yet. In February 2022, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.85, which recovered above the warning line, reflecting the gradual recovery of chip shortage to a certain extent. Price rise of raw materials: from 2021 to March 17, 2022, the price of lithium carbonate increased by 879% and the price of nickel increased by 72%. Since July 2021, the terminal discount rate of China's automobile market has gradually narrowed, and the market price index fluctuates in the range of 98.5% ~ 100%, higher than that in the same period of 2020 3~4pct.
The price increase has limited impact on the sales volume of new energy vehicles:
Fuel price increases the cost of fuel vehicles: Based on the average fuel consumption of 9L / 100km and annual driving mileage of 10000 ~ 15000 km under urban working conditions, the annual fuel cost of No. 95 gasoline vehicle is 1449 ~ 2174 yuan higher than that of the same period last year, and that of No. 92 gasoline vehicle is 1359 ~ 2039 yuan higher than that of the same period last year.
The demand for high-quality brands continues to be strong: at present, the delivery cycle of Tesla Model 3 & Y is further extended to 16 ~ 20 weeks, and the orders on hand remain at a high level. Tesla has been able to maintain the continuous improvement of terminal demand after several price increases since 2021, which is enough to prove that high-quality brands can better absorb the short-term negative impact of price increases on sales. We believe that the price rise will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands.
The plug-in hybrid models represented by DM-I technology have considerable cost advantages: Byd Company Limited(002594) song plusdm-i and Tang DM-I models and their corresponding fuel models have reduced the price difference to 31000 yuan and 24000 yuan respectively; The new DM-I has a power loss and fuel consumption of 4.2L per hundred kilometers, and the starting price is 216800 yuan, which has more cost-effective advantages than the old DM model.
Price increase does not affect the general trend of new energy development: referring to the historical trend of retail volume and price index in the luxury market, the narrowing of discount will have a certain impact on terminal sales in the short term, but we believe that price increase often affects consumers' short-term decision-making. In the medium and long term, consumers' psychological price expectation will also change with the change of the overall market price environment. The development momentum of new energy vehicles remains strong: in February 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, a year-on-year increase of + 184.3%; Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 321000, a year-on-year increase of + 182.2%. From January 2020 to February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 2.4% to 19.2%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles increased from 2.6% to 21.6%, both reaching a record high.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles increased to 21.6%, the automotive industry changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla's domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Vehicle: Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation & strong vehicle cycle OEM, recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , focus on Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is lower than expected; The risk of further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Risk of further deterioration of global core shortage; The price of raw materials and freight continue to rise; The demand growth of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The development progress of automobile intellectualization is less than expected; The prosperity of the industry is lower than expected; The global macro-economy is less than expected; Focus on the company's performance does not meet expectations.
