Industry core view:
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the "14th five year plan" for modern energy system, requiring the development of wind power generation to speed up. From January to February, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 10.86gw, a significant year-on-year increase of 234%. Under the expectation of 195240gw photovoltaic installed capacity in the world this year, the production expansion of silicon wafer link is not reduced, the orders of head equipment manufacturers are sufficient, and the cell chip link ushers in TOPCON's first large-scale production.
Key investment points:
Grasp the requirements of the green transformation period and vigorously promote low-carbon energy. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China achieved remarkable results in low-carbon transformation, with non fossil energy consumption accounting for 15.9% and wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity cagr16.5% 6%、44.3%。 By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to 20%, the proportion of power generation will reach 39%, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach 25% in 2030, renewable energy power generation will become the main power supply in 2035, and the construction of new power system will achieve substantial results. The plan proposes to accelerate the construction of distributed scenery, orderly promote the development of centralized scenery, actively promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and buildings, and carry out hydrogen production by scenery.
Silicon wafer link: the planned expansion of silicon wafer production in 22 years is not reduced, and the orders of head equipment manufacturers are sufficient. In the 21st year, the production of silicon wafer was expanded on a large scale by about 150gw, with a year-on-year increase of 40.7% to 227gw. The market is worried about the deterioration of the competition pattern of silicon wafer and the slowdown of production expansion this year. However, according to our statistics, the scale of silicon wafer expansion this year is expected to exceed that of last year, reaching more than 150gw. In terms of 200 million yuan / GW equipment investment, the demand for silicon wafer equipment in 22 years will be 30 billion yuan. Recently, Longji announced that it plans to build 20GW silicon rod + slice project in Inner Mongolia (with an investment of 7.6 billion), and Jiangsu Jingpin announced 12gw pull rod + 6Gw slice project (with an investment of 3.5 billion). Under the high profit margin of silicon wafer link, leading and second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers actively expand their production. Judging from the leading single crystal furnace Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) orders, 17.76 billion orders were not completed in the first three quarters of 21 years, adding about 3 billion new orders from Shuangliang and Gaojing in the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the annual orders in 21 years will exceed 20 billion. We are optimistic about the equipment company with abundant production capacity and leading technology in the silicon wafer sector.
Battery chip link: n-type technology keeps pace, and battery manufacturers actively layout. As the p-type battery reaches the upper limit of theoretical conversion efficiency, the n-type battery will usher in mass production in 22 years. At present, the planned capacity of n-type technical route TOPCON and hjt is as high as 162gw and 153.5gw respectively. It is expected that TOPCON will be the first to usher in large-scale production this year, with a new capacity of 50gw. In March, the mass production of n-type batteries progressed smoothly: 1) in terms of TOPCON, Jingke's newly put into production 16gwtopcon batteries, the mass production efficiency reached 24.5%, and the production capacity and yield increased steadily Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) pe poly equipment is delivered to Jiangsu Runyang customers. 2) In terms of hjt, Anhui Huasheng Huasheng phase I 500MW heterojunction mass production efficiency reached 24.6% - 24.65%, and the yield rate was 98.5%. Phase II equipment has been put into the plant in March, and 2.7gw heterojunction capacity will be formed in the first half of the year. In order to realize the conversion efficiency of M6 heterojunction battery 26.07%, the feasibility of heterojunction battery conversion efficiency exceeding 26% is verified. With the gradual release of silicon material production capacity at the end of the 21st century, the price of silicon material is expected to decline, the profitability of battery chip link is improved, and the investment in battery chip link of downstream manufacturers is promoted. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading technology of battery device.
Risk factors: the PV installed capacity is less than expected, and the downstream expansion is less than expected
