Analysis of the overall situation of the industry
In 2020, the scale of narrow medical information industry will be about 14.5 billion yuan. Frost & Sullivan predicts that the scale will reach 47 billion yuan by 2025, and the five-year CAGR will be about 28%. Among them, the annual average new increment brought by the new medical infrastructure is no less than 8 billion, the policy needs such as electronic medical record rating, interconnection, DRGs / dip, telemedicine and "smart hospital", the upgrading needs stimulated by industrial technology iteration, and the maintenance needs of more than 200000 existing medical institutions at all levels, with a total annual demand of no less than 16 billion yuan.
Policy remains the core driving force
Since 2020, the National Health Commission and other relevant departments have successively issued policies such as national standards and norms for public health informatization construction (for Trial Implementation), opinions on promoting the high-quality development of public hospitals, and actions to promote the high-quality development of public hospitals (20212025), so as to further strengthen the supporting role of informatization and promote the timely and quality of relevant medical informatization standards such as electronic medical records, interconnection and smart hospitals Complete the construction in quantity. In November 2021, the National Medical Insurance Bureau issued the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment reform, marking the end of the three-year pilot work of medical insurance fee control and entering the national promotion stage.
The overall industry concentration shows an upward trend
At present, the concentration of medical information industry is not high. In 2020, the market share of Cr5, a manufacturer of hospital core management system in China, was about 34.1%, and the market share of Cr5, an electronic medical record system, was about 58.5%. With strong marketing, R & D and service capabilities, leading enterprises in the industry continue to run horses and enclosure, and the proportion of large orders continues to increase. At the same time, with the help of capital platform, listed head enterprises continue to expand market share and enrich their product lines through M & A and integration. The industrial concentration of the industry is expected to further improve.
Industry outlook or investment highlights
Medical informatization has obvious attributes of people's livelihood, and the sources of funds are diverse and guaranteed. It will grow rapidly under the promotion of new medical infrastructure and a series of policies during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Large projects such as cross regional medical groups, medical consortia, medical communities and smart hospitals have been intensively tendered, and the proportion of tens of millions of large orders of leading enterprises has increased. Business models have become increasingly rich and diverse, and the proportion of service income has increased year by year.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the prospect of the medical information industry and give a rating of "stronger than the big market". We recommend B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) and Jiahe Meikang with abundant orders and stable customer relationship; In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the industry leader Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) , whose business model layout is perfect, and Wonders Information Co.Ltd(300168) , whose performance is gradually restored.
Risk tips
1. Systemic risk; 2. The IT expenditure of hospitals, Health Commission and medical insurance bureau is lower than expected; 3. The implementation of medical IT policies is less than expected; 4. The epidemic caused the project implementation and acceptance to be less than expected.
