Event comments: on March 23, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which is China’s first medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy industry and first proposed that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system. The goal is to basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy and build a number of hydrogenation stations, produce 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons of hydrogen from renewable energy and reduce carbon dioxide by 1-2 million tons / year by 2025. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly. This indicates that the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry has entered a new stage.
Key investment points
Policy guided demand burst, and the positive cycle is expected to open. Under the background of emphasizing self-control, energy conservation and emission reduction at the national level, a series of measures to support all links of the hydrogen energy industry have been issued from the central government to the local government. China’s hydrogen energy demand will increase rapidly under the stimulation of policies. It is estimated that China’s hydrogen demand will be close to 60 million tons by 2050. At the same time, according to the IEA forecast, the proportion of global fuel cell, energy power generation and synthetic fuel demand in the total demand will increase from less than 0.06% in 2020 to 56.6% of the total demand. The rapid growth of demand and the change of internal structure lead to the rapid development of domestic new hydrogen energy materials, which is expected to start the process of localization and substitution. At the same time, the improvement of localization rate will effectively reduce the price of relevant new materials, improve the economy of hydrogen energy application, further open the market space and open the positive cycle;
The proton exchange membrane industry has developed rapidly. Proton exchange membrane is the core component of fuel cell and water electrolysis device, accounting for more than 15% of the production cost. Due to many barriers such as technology, qualification, environmental protection and capital, there are few enterprises capable of producing perfluorinated proton exchange membrane in China. In recent two years, with the increase of demand, relevant enterprises have been more active in the capacity planning of proton exchange membrane. At the same time, it has narrowed the gap between Chinese enterprises and foreign competitors in terms of R & D cost and technology life. At the same time, the rapid growth of downstream demand will strongly support the development of proton exchange membrane industry. According to our prediction, by 2025, China’s total demand for proton exchange membrane will reach 2.5 million square meters, cagr63.5 million square meters 5%。 When the supply side is limited, China’s proton exchange membrane industry will maintain a high outlook. In the incremental market, enterprises with relevant technical reserves and capacity planning in the industry will obtain greater development opportunities;
Carbon fiber for hydrogen storage is expected in the future. Compared with the traditional hydrogen storage cylinder, the new high-strength carbon fiber hydrogen storage cylinder overcomes the problem of hydrogen embrittlement, greatly improves the safety and reduces the weight. It has become an important hydrogen storage tool for fuel cell vehicles. As the hydrogen storage bottle is a special equipment with high safety requirements, T700 high-end carbon fiber is used in the carbon fiber hydrogen storage bottle, accounting for more than 60% of the total cost. The supply of high-end carbon fiber is affected by many factors such as technology, qualification and capital. Therefore, it is concentrated in the leading enterprises, the competition pattern is stable, and the relevant enterprises are arranged in advance, which will benefit from the rapid development of the industry to the greatest extent. With the increase of the demand for hydrogen storage bottles and the unit consumption of carbon fiber, the demand for carbon fiber for hydrogen storage will usher in explosive growth. It is estimated that by 2025, the demand for carbon fiber for hydrogen storage will exceed 34000 tons and cagr60.5 million tons 3%。 The industrial barriers of high-end carbon fiber limit its production expansion capacity. The shortage of carbon fiber for hydrogen storage will continue in the next few years, and manufacturers capable of providing large-scale high-performance carbon fiber will gain more bargaining power;
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of the country’s overall energy structure and specific application fields, the hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of development. With the introduction of relevant policies, the hydrogen energy industry has ushered in a period of rapid development opportunities, and the whole industrial chain has been actively expanded. Well planned head enterprises will be the direct beneficiaries of the industrial expansion stage. At the same time, drawing on the experience and lessons of technology patents controlled by others in the past, we believe that we should pay attention to the development of hydrogen energy basic materials and pay attention to the leading enterprises that have long been engaged in the research and development of new hydrogen energy materials and independent and controllable technology. Therefore, in the process of investment, hydrogen energy new material enterprises with technical qualification barriers and capacity growth should focus on. In the incremental market of terminal demand, proton exchange membrane manufacturers with industrial chain synergy will stand out. Recommended targets: Dongyue Group (directly or indirectly holding 34.2% equity of Dongyue in the future), Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) etc; In the context of the rising demand for carbon fiber wound hydrogen storage bottles, focus on the development of leading enterprises with large-scale high-end carbon fiber delivery capacity. Recommended targets: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying, Hengshen shares, Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc.
Risk warning: risk of rising raw material prices; The raised investment project is less than the expected risk; The downstream demand growth and localization substitution process are less than expected; Market risk appetite downside risk
