\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Key investment points
More than expected 1: willing to rotate and control the quantity to ensure the stability of the price, and comb the Tuopai brand series again
Review 2021: shedituo brand two wheel drive. In 21 years, the revenue of shede / Tuopai accounted for about 8 / 2 respectively. In terms of shede series, it is still the main source of income. Among shede brands, the proportion of taste shede / shede is expected to be about 65% / 20% respectively. In 21 years, the company's wholesale price showed a steady upward development trend, and the inventory was at a low level in recent three years. Tuopai series: 21h1 company added Tuopai customized products to restore Tuopai. 21h2 will tighten Tuopai series products. In 22 years, it is expected that Tuopai will still be the focus of investment attraction, and will take the route of big business and excellent business.
Looking forward to 2022: willing to take turns to control the quantity, ensure the stability of the price, and comb the Tuopai series again. Specifically:
1) willing brand: rotate to control the quantity, focus on large-scale quantity and stabilize the price. At present, the product line of shede brand is clear. The collection shede, wisdom shede, taste shede and the way of shede are positioned at the price band of 8001000, Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) , 400600 and 200 yuan respectively. Crystal shede and other products are used as a supplement to group purchase. In the next 22 years, it is expected that the company will carry out rotation control on products such as taste shede, collection shede and wisdom shede to stabilize the price. Taste shede and the way of shede will be the main high-volume products, and collection shede and wisdom shede will become high-volume reserve products in the next 2-3 years, so as to ensure a sound development structure in the short, medium and long term. At the same time, the company has set a price red line for each product to further ensure the stability of the price;
2) Tuopai: reorganize, pursue depth and control rhythm. In 2022, the company is expected to intensify its efforts to sort out, among which tuopaiqu liquor Commemorative Edition (200300 yuan, with a volume of more than 100 million) is the leader, Tuopai Tequ (100200 yuan) is the dragon body, high-speed bottled liquor Tuopai super grade T68 and Tuopai liuliang (priced at 68 and 48 yuan, accounting for about 20% of revenue) are the breakthrough, and high-speed bottled liquor is still the focus of this year (mainly self-supporting, supplemented by customized products). The company will pursue the in-depth development of Tuopai under the control of the pace of nationalization;
3) ultra high end: it is highly valued and aims to enhance the brand power. It is still in preparation. It is expected that the high-end price of Hohhot's medium and high-end products in 2022 will continue to increase, and the price of Hohhot's subsidiary is expected to be close to the high-end brand in 2022.
More than expected 2: the main sales market and old dealers are the main sources of performance, and the channel volume and quality rise. Looking back on 2021: the growth of the company in 2021 mainly comes from old merchants / big merchants and base markets. Specifically: 1) dealers: old businessmen are the main source of income growth. In 2021, the number of dealers with a scale of less than 500000 was high, the growth rate of dealers with a scale of more than 2 million was fast, the number of dealers with a volume of 5-10 million doubled, and the growth rate of dealers with a scale of more than 30 million slowed down. The main source of income was old merchants.
2) market: the company's growth mainly comes from key markets, rather than potential markets and widely distributed markets. The company focuses on "focusing on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, improving the northeast and northwest, and breaking through the East and South China", and speeds up the national layout of the brand. It is expected that the growth rate of the company in Hebei, Shandong and Henan and other markets will exceed 100% in 21 years, and the original core market will contribute to the main revenue while maintaining a high growth rate. In the province: in 2021, the revenue in the province reached 1.18 billion yuan (+ 127.6%), and the revenue share increased by 0.04 percentage point to 25.8% compared with the same period last year. Although the number of dealers decreased by 24 to 467 compared with the same period last year (mainly due to the implementation of the joint venture model, Chengdu has established a joint venture company from dozens of dealers), the average scale of dealers increased by 139.3% to 2.527 million yuan / company year on year, which has strong stability; Outside the province: in 2021, the market revenue outside the province increased by 80.8% year-on-year to 3.0 billion. Under the background of accelerating the growth of 515 to 1785 dealers, the average size of dealers increased by 28.7% to 1.678 million yuan / home. In 2022, the company will further strengthen the strategy of excellent business and large business and realize the continuous improvement of channel quality.
Looking forward to 2022: the company will continue the excellent business strategy and accelerate the development of markets outside the province. Specifically,
1) dealers: in 2022, the company is expected to pay more attention to the improvement of dealer quality and the enhancement of viscosity. Adhering to the altruistic thinking, the company attracts dealers to join through small capital occupation and high return on investment of dealers. By means of brand improvement, setting up eight front-end warehouses to improve response speed, high channel profits and innovative Internet marketing, the company not only expands business, but also optimizes business, so as to realize the double increase of channel volume and quality. In addition, as one of the six major business departments, e-commerce mainly sells standard products and cultural and creative products. It is expected that in 2022, under the background of many personnel, high quality and rich operation means, the revenue growth rate will continue to be higher than offline. At the same time, the proportion will continue to increase in the future, and multi-channel development will be carried out simultaneously to improve the anti risk ability of enterprises;
2) market: focus on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, keep the strategy unchanged, improve Northeast and northwest, and break through East and South China. In 2021, the company's growth mainly comes from the deep cultivation of 39 cities. In 2022, it is expected that Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) will make a slight adjustment in the market strategy: pay more attention to the Northeast market with good foundation and high growth rate. At the same time, the company will also tilt the key policies for the companies in East and South China (including personnel salary, assessment, investment promotion layout, marketing expenses, etc.).
Beyond expectation 3: the profitability has been steadily improved, and the cost investment is expected to remain stable
In 2021, the gross profit margin increased 1.9 percentage points to 77.8% (Baijiu business gross profit margin) in the same period last year, and net interest rate increased 3.1 percentage points to 25.6% over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's increased cost utilization. In 2022, with the expansion of the company's scale, the company will continue to adhere to the four strategies, increase strategic investment under the implementation of rolling budget, and maintain stability as a whole. It is expected that the scale effect of the company will appear and promote the decrease of expense rate.
Profit forecast and valuation
The equity incentive system launched at the beginning of the 19th century is conducive to stimulate the enthusiasm of employees. At the same time, the executives of Fosun Group have joined the board of directors recently, which is expected to help Fosun to embark on the performance improvement channel. With the gradual implementation of the four strategies and the steady expansion of dealers, the company is expected to accelerate the performance. We predict that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 43.6%, 32.3% and 22.2% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.2%, 35.0% and 25.6% respectively, and EPS was 5.7, 7.7 and 9.7 yuan respectively; PE was 32, 24 and 19 times respectively. Considering the accelerated release of the company's reform dividend, the current valuation is cost-effective and maintains the buy rating.
Catalyst: after the epidemic, the demand recovered more than expected, the wholesale price of main products increased steadily, the inventory remained low, and the operation quality of dealers was improved.
Risk warning: 1. Epidemic situation has repeatedly affected Baijiu selling. 2. The landing effect of old wine strategy was less than expected.
