\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 240 Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) )
Event: Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) announced that the company plans to issue no less than 46522448 shares (including) and no more than 69783670 shares (including) to Byd Company Limited(002594) at an issue price of 42.99 yuan / share, and the total amount of funds to be raised (including the issuance cost) does not exceed 3 billion yuan (including the principal amount). All the net funds raised after deducting the issuance cost will be used to supplement working capital and repay debts. At the same time, the two sides will cooperate in the purchase and sale of raw materials, raw material processing, technology, mineral resources development, industrial chain resources and many other fields.
Equity change: after the completion of this non-public offering, the proportion of shares directly or indirectly held by Mr. Yao xiongjie, the actual controller, and the persons acting in concert shall not be less than 26.92%, and Yao xiongjie is still the actual controller of the company. After the completion of this non-public offering, Byd Company Limited(002594) is expected to hold no less than 5.10% and no more than 7.46% of the company's shares. The shares subscribed for this offering will not be transferred within 36 months from the date of listing of these shares.
The smelting end continues to expand and the resource end is arranged synchronously. At the smelting end, the company has a capacity of 25000 tons of lithium carbonate and 45000 tons of lithium hydroxide. At the same time, it has jointly built a new lithium salt capacity overseas. The long-term lithium salt capacity may exceed 110000 tons, including 77500 tons of lithium hydroxide equity capacity. On the resource side, it owns yelonggou, Murong and maxmind mines, with a total equity resource of about 718900 tons of LCE. At the same time, it has the sales volume of MT cattlin and avz packages.
Deeply embedded in the mainstream supply chain, the company's performance can be released. (1) Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) on the one hand, the company actively seeks cooperation with outstanding enterprises in the industrial chain. Previously, it planned to jointly build smelting capacity with stellar, a subsidiary of Qingshan. According to SMM, the planned capacity of Qingshan Ruipu and Lanjun new energy batteries has exceeded 200gwh, and there is a large demand for lithium salt. (2) Byd Company Limited(002594) in terms of Salt Lake and Sichuan mine layout for many years: 1) Byd Company Limited(002594) holds 18% equity of Zabuye lithium industry. At present, Zabuye phase II preparation is progressing smoothly, and 12000 tons of lithium carbonate capacity may be completed and put into operation in 2023. 2) In December 2017, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced the establishment of "Qinghai Salt Lake Byd Company Limited(002594) Resource Development Co., Ltd." ( Byd Company Limited(002594) holds 49% shares) in cooperation with Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) in order to start the construction of the "project with an annual output of 30000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate". The total investment of the project is planned to be 4.849 billion yuan. At present, the project is still in the pilot state. 3) Sichuan Mining Co., Ltd. has closely cooperated with Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) and the latter's 2.5 million ton beneficiation project has completed the second EIA publicity, which is converted into 470000 tons of lithium concentrate. Upon the completion of this offering, Byd Company Limited(002594) will hold more than 5% of the equity of the company, and will cooperate with the company in many fields such as raw material purchase and sales, raw material processing, technology, mineral resource development, industrial chain resources, etc. the company is deeply embedded in the mainstream supply chain, and the future performance can be released.
Accelerate the layout of the lithium industry chain, integrate upstream and downstream, highlight the growth, or start the valuation repair logic. At present, the importance of lithium resources is prominent. This transaction is an integrated cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain around lithium resources and lithium salts. Previously, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other similar arrangements have been made. After the integration of the lithium industrial chain, the cost caused by inventory and transaction may be reduced, and the information asymmetry between supply and demand will be gradually reduced. The price of lithium is expected to remain stable or guide the demand for new energy to develop better, Continue to be optimistic about the growth of the industry, and enterprises participating in integration may have good incremental space.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize operating revenue of RMB 4.016 billion, RMB 8.572 billion and RMB 13.549 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and realize net profit of RMB 8.8 billion RMB 8.3 billion, RMB 3.1 billion and RMB 4.521 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.02, RMB 3.58 and RMB 5.22 per share respectively. At present, the corresponding share price of PE is 53.5, 15.2 and 10.5 times. For the first time, it was rated as "overweight-a", with a 6-month target price of 61 yuan / share.
Risk tip: lithium price is lower than expected, demand is lower than expected, fixed increase and project progress are lower than expected
