\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
Event: on March 22, 2022, Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) released the 2021 annual report. In this year, the company achieved an operating revenue of 21.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, and 21q4 revenue of 5.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.03%; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.67%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 787 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%; In the whole year, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and Q4 deducted 748 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.55 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
The market share of gypsum board continues to increase, and the cost transmission and production efficiency are strengthened. In 2021, the national production and sales volume of gypsum board reached 3.51 billion square meters, and the company’s annual sales volume of gypsum board reached 2.378 billion square meters. Calculated by sales volume, the market share was 67.7%, an increase of about 6.6% over 20 years. In 21 years, the revenue of gypsum board business increased by 25.94% year-on-year, maintaining high growth as an industry leader. In 2021, the price of raw materials increased significantly, among which the price of protective paper accounting for 40% of the cost increased by about 20%, and the price increased by about 10001300 yuan / ton, while the price of coal and other fuels increased more significantly, and the annual fuel power cost increased by 49.68% year-on-year. The annual gross profit margin of gypsum board business is 37.26%, an increase of about 1.36pct compared with 20 years. It benefits from the improvement of industry concentration, the enhancement of the company’s cost transmission ability, the remarkable effect of Q4 price increase, and the price increase effectively covers the cost increase; At the same time, with the increase of the proportion of the company’s large-scale production capacity, the economic benefits appeared, the annual unit raw material cost decreased by 0.05 yuan / m2, and the labor and other production costs also decreased year-on-year. The revenue of waterproof business increased by 16% year-on-year and the growth rate slowed down, mainly due to the pressure on real estate since the second half of 21 years, the company’s strategic adjustment and optimization of customer structure, stricter control of accounts receivable, and actively stopped shipping to customers with poor collection quality. The gross profit margin of waterproof was about 24%, down by about 10 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as asphalt.
Q4 the return of operating cash was accelerated, and the management efficiency of accounts receivable was improved. In 2021, the company’s accounts and notes receivable increased by 5.88% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of revenue; Under the pressure of real estate, the company effectively controls the scale of accounts receivable and improves the operation quality; Among them, the accounts receivable at the end of the year 21 decreased by 1.503 billion yuan compared with that at the end of 21q3, a month on month decrease of 44%, the cash receipt ratio of 21q4 was 1.31x, an increase of 0.28x compared with 21q3, and the overall collection situation was good. Since Q3 of 2021, the management and control of real estate funds have been strengthened, and the capital chain of construction projects is relatively tight. The company’s gypsum board and waterproof business belong to the upstream of the industrial chain. According to the annual report data, the company’s cash flow is less negatively affected by the downstream capital chain. On the one hand, due to the large distribution proportion of the company, business distribution accounts for 91.32%, which has advantages over the cash flow return of direct selling mode; On the other hand, the company strengthened cash recovery at the end of the year, and the recovery proportion of 21q4 accounts receivable increased significantly.
The proportion of green buildings increased in the 14th five year plan, and gypsum board + keel assembly is expected to open the market. In early March, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the “14th five year plan” for building energy efficiency and green building development. The document proposed that “by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, and the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%”. Gypsum board and light steel keel are recognized as green building materials. The partition system composed of gypsum board and light steel keel is convenient for mechanized and rapid installation, and is suitable for prefabricated buildings. Construction industry is one of the important sources of carbon emissions. Under the background of carbon neutralization, green buildings and prefabricated buildings as effective ways to reduce carbon will be effectively promoted, and the company’s gypsum board and light steel keel business will benefit. The company’s original Luban universal board system creates a whole house assembly system of “industrialized production, assembly construction and immediate installation and living”, which is expected to open the market under the improvement trend of prefabricated buildings.
The capacity expansion of the three business segments and the strategy of one body and two wings have been steadily promoted. Under the strategic guidance of “one body and two wings”, the company’s gypsum board has formed a total effective production capacity of 3.358 billion square meters, has 74 gypsum board production bases in China, has completed the layout of five overseas gypsum board production bases, and maintains the leading position of the world’s largest gypsum board industry group. The light steel keel business has made rapid progress, with a total production capacity of 488000 tons. In the “two wings” business, waterproofing was promoted rapidly. In 21 years, Beixin waterproofing subsidiary was established and the waterproofing business integration of the company was completed, realizing the layout of 15 industrial bases in China; The coating business adopts the development mode of “new project + joint reorganization”, and is oriented to architectural and industrial coatings. The main products of dragon brand paint purchased are water-based coatings, which are oriented to the construction field, and lighthouse coatings are mainly used for high-precision electronic components. The rapid expansion of the company’s waterproof and coating business will provide new increment for the company’s medium-term business development.
Investment suggestion: considering the continued resilience of real estate completion in 2022, the impact of green building trend and the growth space of gypsum board and new business of the company, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 4.028 billion, 4.750 billion and 5.492 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, 17.9% and 15.6%, EPS of RMB 2.38, 2.81 and 3.25 respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 12.21, 10.35 and 8.95 times respectively; Give the company a PE valuation of 18-20 times based on the 22-year performance forecast, adjust the target price range to 42.84-47.6 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the promotion of green buildings and prefabricated buildings is not as expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise and the cost pressure intensifies; Real estate investment is significantly lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies, and the expansion progress of enterprises is lower than expected; Environmental protection supervision was relaxed, and the withdrawal progress of production capacity was less than expected.
