\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 487 Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) )
Matters:
According to the notice on Issuing the plan of key construction projects in Guangdong Province in 2022 issued by Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, " Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) marine equipment manufacturing project (high tech Zone)" is included in the preliminary preparation project of key construction in Guangdong Province in 2022. The main products of the project include sea tower, single pile, jacket, floating foundation, offshore booster station and other marine engineering structural products, with an estimated investment of 5 billion yuan.
Ping An View:
The active promotion of capacity expansion in Guangdong is of great strategic significance. " Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) marine equipment manufacturing project (high tech Zone)" is included in the preliminary preparation project for key construction in Guangdong Province in 2022, which indicates that the company's capacity expansion in Guangdong has been preliminarily recognized by the local government. According to the disclosed information, the base site may be located in Yangjiang high tech Zone, and the main products to be produced are sea tower, single pile, jacket, floating foundation, offshore booster station and other marine engineering structural products, Focus on offshore wind power; Considering the estimated investment scale of the project, the production capacity of the production base is expected to be equivalent to that of the existing Penglai production base. For the company, the expansion of Guangdong makes the company's capacity distribution more balanced. At present, the Penglai base where the company produces offshore wind power products mainly covers the offshore wind power market near Shandong and overseas markets. After the landing of Yangjiang base, the company has the conditions to expand the offshore wind power market in Guangdong and nearby. Guangdong is one of the largest offshore wind power markets in China. In 2022, Guangdong plans to put into operation 1 offshore wind power project with a scale of 500000 kW, 11 continued projects with a total scale of 7.5 million KW, 2 new projects with a total scale of 950000 kW, and 13 offshore wind power projects with a total scale of 21.37 million KW will be included in the preliminary preparation projects for key construction in Guangdong Province in 2022; Among the 8.95 million KW offshore projects to be put into operation, continued construction and new construction, a total of 6.5 million KW projects are located in Yangjiang sea area. Therefore, after the implementation of Yangjiang production base, the company has certain territorial advantages in Guangdong and Yangjiang, and the scale of offshore wind power business is expected to be greatly expanded.
Shandong has strong market demand, and the sea breeze business of Penglai base is expected to increase significantly in 2022. According to the guiding opinions on energy work of the whole province in 2022 issued by Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau, Shandong will fully start the offshore wind power development of Bozhong, peninsula south and other provincial managed sea areas in 2022, with a construction scale of more than 5 million KW and a grid connection of about 2 million KW. There are two offshore wind power projects completed and put into operation in Shandong Province in 2021, with a total scale of about 600MW, which means that after the rush installation, although the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China may decline, the construction scale of offshore wind power in Shandong Province in 2022 is expected to increase significantly year-on-year; In addition, according to the disclosed information, the total scale of offshore wind power planned by Shandong Province reaches 35 million KW, and the demand of Shandong offshore wind power market is expected to continue to grow in the future. Penglai Dajin is a major offshore wind power pipe pile manufacturer in Shandong. The offshore wind power business in 2022 and in the future will benefit from the rapid growth of market demand in Shandong. At present, the design capacity of Penglai Dajin production base is about 500000 tons. According to the non-public offering plan disclosed by the company, the capacity of Penglai base will be further improved through technical transformation.
Offshore wind power business in other markets is also under layout. In February 2022, the company signed an investment framework agreement with Donggang municipal government of Liaoning Province. According to the agreement, Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) and Donggang municipal government and other relevant units jointly set up an industrial operation company. Donggang municipal government will entrust all offshore wind power resources under its jurisdiction to industrial operation companies for management during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) will cooperate with Donggang municipal government to build the whole industrial chain project of Liaoning (Dandong Donggang) offshore wind power equipment, Thus, it is expected to realize the capacity layout of offshore wind power pipe piles in Liaoning and expand the offshore wind power pipe pile Market in Liaoning and surrounding areas.
With the vigorous development of global offshore wind power, the company has the potential to become the leader of global offshore wind power pipe pile. With the rapid decline of investment cost of offshore wind power driven by technological progress such as large-scale wind turbines, China's offshore wind power has basically met the conditions of comprehensive parity, and large-scale development can be expected; European offshore wind power has basically achieved zero subsidy. Offshore wind power has become one of the important starting points for low-carbon energy transformation and energy security. Offshore wind power emerging markets such as the United States, Japan and South Korea are rising rapidly, and the installed scale of overseas offshore wind power is growing rapidly as a whole. Based on the advantages of technical strength, historical performance and expansion capacity, the company has realized capacity layout and expansion in Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning and other major markets, and the share of China is expected to increase in the future; China's offshore wind power pipe pile has obvious cost advantages compared with overseas. Relying on the foundation of onshore wind power tower export and superior hardware facilities, the company is expected to take the lead in opening the European offshore wind power pipe pile market.
Investment advice. Based on the current development situation of offshore wind power and the company's capacity layout, the company's profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 603 million, RMB 1036 million and RMB 1.608 billion (the original forecast value is RMB 732 million, RMB 941 million and RMB 1.188 billion), corresponding to eps1.5 billion 09, 1.86 and 2.89 yuan (not considering the increase of share capital caused by future non-public offering), dynamic PE32 7. 19.0, 12.2 times. Offshore wind power has a large growth space. The company has the potential to become the leader of global offshore wind power pipe piles and maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. 1. The progress of Yangjiang base is less than expected; 2. The installed capacity of offshore wind power is less than expected; 3. The sharp fluctuation of raw material price and exchange rate may affect the profitability of the company; 4. The industry competition intensifies and the profitability is lower than expected.
