\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: the net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 ~ 470 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99.81% ~ 123.59% and a month-on-month increase of - 9.5% ~ 1.3%; The net profit deducted from non return to parent was 430480 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.10% ~ 142.34% and a month-on-month increase of 6.7% ~ 19.1%.
Comments:
The supply is optimized and the demand is strong, and the food additives are expected to continue to boom. According to Baichuan information, in the first quarter (as of March 21), the average price of sucralose was 437700 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 0.7%, the average price of acesulfame was 83900 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 9.1%, the average price of methyl maltol was 122300 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 24.5%, and the average price of ethyl maltol was 99400 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 31.5%. The high price of products has a certain downward trend. On the one hand, the price of raw materials has a certain downward drive. Urea, caustic soda and acetic acid fell by 3.5%, 29.4% and 29.1% respectively; On the other hand, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the Winter Olympics and the global epidemic, the demand for sweeteners in February is weak. It is expected that with the warmer weather, the purchase demand for beverages is expected to be released. The long-term global sugar substitution trend continues. According to the white paper on sugar reduction action of healthy Chinese beverages and foods (2021), it is expected that China's sugar free beverage industry will maintain double-digit growth in the next few years. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply side industry is affected, while the supporting advantages of the company's industrial chain are prominent, and the core competitiveness is expected to be further improved.
Plan repurchase for equity incentive to demonstrate confidence in long-term development. The company plans to repurchase its shares with its own funds of RMB 75-150 million. Under the condition that the repurchase price does not exceed 55 yuan / share, according to the upper limit amount, the number of shares to be repurchased is expected to be about 273 shares (about 0.49% of the total share capital). According to the lower limit amount of repurchase, the number of shares to be repurchased is expected to be about 1363636 shares (about 0.24% of the total share capital), demonstrating the company's long-term development confidence.
The industrial chain extends upward, continues to reduce costs, and extends downward to enrich the product matrix. Upward extension: (1) 30000 T / a DMF project is arranged to provide raw materials for sucralose. At present, relevant administrative examination and approval are actively promoted. (2) The construction of sulfoxide chloride phase II project has started. At present, the main project has been completed, and the project construction will be actively promoted in the follow-up. The downward extension part, according to the official account of the January 21st public number of the kolkai Lai, will establish a strategic partnership around many fields such as natural sweeteners, food raw materials and sugar reducing. It will focus on the commercialization of synthetic biotechnology in the field of food reduction and use of synthetic biotechnology to achieve a new way of healthy sugar reduction. According to the company's annual report, Jinhe Chemical Materials Research Institute has completed staffing and optimization, carried out process optimization, furfural downstream product process route, expanded R & D reserves of biological fermentation products and other projects around the company's existing products, and further developed bio based technologies, materials and related industrial chains. In the future, through the construction of Dingyuan base, the company is expected to further expand the development space, enrich the product matrix and thicken the enterprise moat.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.81 billion yuan, 1.94 billion yuan and 1.86 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 12.1 times, 11.3 times and 11.7 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand does not meet expectations, the production capacity is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
