\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 239 Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) )
Event: on March 24, Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) issued the announcement of the restricted stock incentive plan for 2022. It is proposed to grant 2 million restricted shares, including directors, senior managers, core technicians and other personnel deemed by the board of directors to need incentive, accounting for 1.4286% of the total share capital of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan. The grant price (including reserved grants) is 25 yuan per share, and the incentive objects granted are no more than 150, accounting for 34.25% of the total number of employees of the company (the total number of employees of the company as of December 31, 2021 is 438).
The equity incentive scheme was implemented beyond expectations, demonstrating the company's high growth confidence
The assessment year of restricted stocks in the incentive plan is the fiscal year from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses in each assessment year is assessed. The unlocking conditions correspond to the net profit target after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively of RMB 161 / 201 / 248 million, and the growth rate of the non net profit target is 30% / 62% / 100% compared with 2021. Equity incentive can establish a long-term restraint mechanism for the company's management and effectively help the company's future net profit growth.
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 91.13%, which reflected the scale effect and significantly enhanced the profitability
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.11%. The operating revenue achieved sustained and stable growth, mainly due to the increase of market and customer demand in the downstream aviation, aerospace, gas turbine and energy equipment fields of the company. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 139 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 91.13%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 124 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.25%, which exceeded the expected growth; Gross profit margin of sales + 763.3% year on year; The net profit margin on sales reached 14.48%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.64pcts. Under the large-scale effect, the company further reduced costs and increased efficiency, and its profitability was significantly improved. We believe that a number of new aeroengines in China are in the accelerated landing period of batch production of research models, and the company has participated in the synchronous development of ring forgings of many pre research and research models of aeroengines in China. It is expected that the research participation and flow share of parts in the new generation of aeroengine models will be improved compared with mature models, which is expected to benefit more fully from the new aeroengine entering the batch production and volume period and entering the long-term high-speed growth track. At the same time, the company will usher in the improvement of capacity utilization brought by the optimization of product structure (small batch and multiple varieties affect capacity allocation). At the same time, the marginal cost will be reduced under the scale effect after the climbing of new products (including the reduction of allocation of fixed costs and the decrease of convertible costs caused by manufacturing upgrading). The profitability will enter the track of continuous improvement on the basis of large-scale production.
The foreign trade business will gradually recover or return to the pre epidemic level in 2022
In 2021, the company's overseas business achieved a revenue of 195 million, a year-on-year increase of + 50.58%, returning to 84.49% of the overseas revenue in 2019 before the epidemic. The impact of the epidemic on production has been significantly controlled, and the overseas business has accelerated the recovery. We expect that with the covid-19 epidemic gradually controlled globally, overseas civil aviation engine business orders are expected to further recover.
Prepayment + 131.55%, actively preparing for production and goods, and accelerating product delivery
At the end of 2021, the company's advance payment reached 52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 131.55%. The book balance of raw materials in inventories at the end of the period was 289 million yuan, an increase of 50.46% over the same period of last year; The book balance of products in process was 120 million yuan, an increase of 109.86% over the same period last year; The company is in the stage of actively preparing production and goods, and the product delivery speed may continue to improve.
Raise funds to expand core production capacity and promote the digital upgrading of aviation forging system
The investment project raised by the company's IPO is mainly used for the construction of precision manufacturing industrial park of special alloy ring rolled forgings for aeroengines and gas turbines. It is expected to be put into operation in August 2022 and reach full production after two years of operation. After reaching the production capacity, it is expected to increase the sales revenue by 1.162 billion yuan per year, which is 121.03% of the revenue in 2021, and increase the average annual net profit by 185 million yuan (including two years of construction period). We believe that the new capacity will continue to help the company increase the scale of operating revenue, reduce production costs, optimize the company's financial indicators, and further improve profitability and market share.
Profit forecast and rating: we believe that the company's main business will benefit from the accelerated assembly and upgrading of our military's aviation equipment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next three years; At the same time, with the landing of domestic large aircraft projects and the reduction of the impact of the epidemic on the overseas commercial aviation market, the company's ring forgings and other businesses in the commercial direction are expected to achieve leapfrog volume. Under this assumption, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 to be RMB 206 / 303 / 400 million respectively, with a corresponding P / E of 37.73/25.61/19.39x
Risk warning: the price rise of metal raw materials exceeds the market expectation; Order release and delivery fail to meet expectations; The development and assembly of new equipment did not meet expectations; Risks that the construction process of raised investment projects does not meet the expectations, etc
