\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 210 Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) )
Recommendation logic: (1) the traditional business safety cushion is stable: China's beverage market continues to grow with a CAGR of 6% year by year. As an absolute leader in the industry, the company will fully enjoy the dividends brought by market expansion. (2) Technology empowerment and fine customization to explore the market: the company's R & D expenses increased by 76 million compared with 2020. The packaging business deepened cooperation with key customers with innovative and environmental protection products to realize market expansion and build a high moat of the company; (3) High barriers to aluminum-plastic film business: the company's power aluminum-plastic film products have a long R & D cycle, experienced many years of downstream customers and multiple rounds of samples, and the product performance is stable. The company is expected to rely on the characteristics of high intellectual property barriers of aluminum-plastic film products to deeply bind downstream customers and maintain high profitability and performance certainty.
Performance update: the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.529 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 553 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 533 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 2.256 billion yuan, an increase of 56% year-on-year and a decrease of 6% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 123 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month on month increase of 23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 105 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month on month increase of 4%.
Analysis of production and sales in 2021: in 2021, the sales volume of the company's main products (except PA / PE film) increased year-on-year. Among them, aluminum-plastic film products performed well, with a sales volume of 22.17 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 49%, mainly due to the small-scale shipment of the company's products. By the end of 2021, the company has a production capacity of 36.6 million square meters, with a capacity utilization rate of 71%. In addition, the sales volume of the company's pet bottle blank, color paper packaging and printing and OEM beverage business increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. According to the company's announcement, the purchase price of tinsector in 2021 increased by 36% compared with that in 2020. Therefore, the cost of crown cover products is under pressure and the profitability is seriously damaged.
Packaging: the price of crude oil is approaching a historical high, and the packaging demand is upgrading, helping the company maintain profits. In 2021, the company's beverage packaging industry cluster will continue to consolidate the market share of strategic customers, explore new customer markets such as Yuanqi forest and Xicha, and give full play to the advantages of the group to establish strategic cooperative relations with Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) and other well-known Chinese brands. The company's packaging business capacity continues to grow steadily and has good development prospects.
Aluminum plastic film: due to the shortage of high-quality supply and the rising price of complementary products, domestic substitution is imperative. According to the calculation, the global demand for aluminum-plastic film in 2021 is about 260 million square meters, and the existing main production capacity supply is only 220 million square meters, with a supply gap of 40 million square meters; By 2023, the global demand for aluminum-plastic film may reach 530 million square meters. However, at present, the capacity planning of major suppliers is only 450 million square meters, and the supply gap still exists. Therefore, the aluminum plastic film industry will usher in: (1) domestic substitution in the future. Under the background of cautious expansion of the main suppliers of aluminum plastic film DNP and Showa electric, the increasingly mature domestic aluminum plastic film manufacturers will quickly fill the industry demand, and the leading enterprises with mature shipping experience and years of technical precipitation will enter the downstream supply chain faster and benefit first. (2) Both volume and price rise. In the future, the price of aluminum-plastic film is expected to rise slightly affected by supply and demand. Under the background of expanding production, the industry still maintains the logic of both volume and price.
2022 is the outbreak time point of domestic substitution of aluminum-plastic film, with more than 50% space in the future. In 2022, high-end models will be launched one after another. At the same time, the cost reduction strategy of power battery promoted by the Ministry of processing and information technology is highly deterministic. As the last domestic alternative position of power battery materials, aluminum-plastic film is expected to be a big year for aluminum-plastic film in 2022. Since this year, due to the shortage of chips and the massive promotion of A00 cars, the market share of soft pack power batteries has been at the bottom. It is expected that the aluminum plastic film business will usher in a performance explosion in 2022.
Nylon: a "specialized and new" little giant, with a surge in overseas exports. At present, the company is equipped with an advanced complete film production line, which can produce BOPA nylon films of various specifications, with an annual production capacity of 6000 tons. Zidong nylon, a subsidiary, is committed to improving product quality. The overseas export volume of high-end customers increased by 13.7 times. The sales volume of Japanese customers in China continued to increase, realizing a year-on-year increase of 47%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.41 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively. Using the segment valuation method, we give 30xpe to the aluminum plastic film business in 2023, with a corresponding market value of 5.1 billion; The traditional business grew steadily, giving 12xpe to the performance in 2023, corresponding to a market value of 7.4 billion. To sum up, the corresponding total market value is 12.5 billion yuan and the corresponding target price is 8.24 yuan. The "buy" rating is given for the first coverage.
Risk tips: the risk of price change of raw materials, the risk of seasonal influence in food and beverage industry, the risk of market development of new products, the risk of policy change in packaging industry, and the risk that the sales of aluminum-plastic film products are less than expected.
