\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Deep ploughing cathode material, ternary precursor faucet. Founded in 2014, the company integrates into the global industrial chain and leads the development of the industry along the R & D direction of high nickel and low cobalt ternary precursor, high-voltage Co3O4, diversified products and comprehensive recycling. The downstream will eventually be used in high boom fields such as new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 20.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 169.81%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.48%, and the core financial indicators continued to grow at a high rate.
Ternary precursor: the prosperity of the industry is rising and the price is rising sharply. Demand side: power battery cathode materials have experienced the development process from lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate to ternary cathode materials. Ternary precursor is the core raw material of ternary cathode materials, with a year-on-year output of + 79.4% in 21 years, and a high increase in demand exceeding expectations. Ternary precursor price: strong demand and rising raw material costs jointly drive the price to rise sharply. According to the data of wind, as of the middle of March 22, the price of ternary precursor 523 was 156000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, a new high since 2018. Competition pattern: the industry output Cr4 is 62%, entering the era of oligarchy, Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Bangpu have advantages in preparation process, raw material resources and customer binding, and Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) market share has increased to 26%, keeping the first in the industry. Potential entrants: rapid product iteration, increased technical barriers, and it is difficult for new entrants to form competitiveness. Technology trend: in the process of technological progress and product iteration, the high nickel of ternary precursor is the trend.
Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : leading core technology, customer binding and integration build advantages. 1) The R & D rate of the company is 25% higher than that of the “five standard driven” company, and it is difficult for the company to pass the “five standard driven” technology in the industry. 2) Cooperation with leading customers: the company’s ternary precursor products are directly exported to LG Chemical and Samsung SDI. It also has relevant cooperation with well-known enterprise customers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Tesla, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , beiteri, L & F, Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) and so on. The product structure continues to be optimized, and the high-end products of more than 8 series products continue to be sold in large quantities. 3) Expand production and speed up, and have a clear idea of integrated layout. By the end of 2021, the company has a ternary precursor production capacity of 200000 t / A, and the production capacity is expected to be expanded to 500000 T / A in 2023. At the same time, the company actively distributes the mineral smelting project of nickel resources in Indonesia, and plans to build laterite nickel smelting, with an annual output of 60000 tons of high matte nickel containing metals. The process of production capacity integration and international layout is accelerated.
Profit forecast: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.98 billion yuan, 3.19 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current price of the stock price will be 40x, 25X and 21x respectively. Considering that the company is a global leader in the field of positive precursors, and its customers are mainly LG, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other global leaders, the high growth prospect is expected. Give “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of changes in new energy vehicle industry policies, fluctuations in raw material prices, relative concentration of downstream customers and negative net cash flow from operating activities. The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag.
