\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 21.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.67%; The basic earnings per share was 2.078 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.67%. The company's performance is in line with expectations.
Under the year of completion, Beixin's pricing power is prominent, and the volume and price of gypsum board business have increased at the same time. In 2021, the growth rate of commercial housing completion was 11.20%, a new high in recent 10 years. The completion of commercial housing pushed the demand for gypsum board to grow rapidly. Under a good demand environment, although the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry was low (taking the industry oligarch Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) as an example, the capacity utilization rate remained at about 75%), the sharp rise of coal price in 2021 provided cost-side support for the price rise of the company, Superimposed as an industry oligarch, its production capacity has accounted for 68.53% of the country (9.45 percentage points higher than that in 2020). Its strong pricing ability has been highlighted in a good demand environment. The company's gypsum board sales volume and unit price have increased by 18.01% and 6.72% respectively year-on-year, both volume and price have increased, and the gross profit margin has increased by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year.
The keel matching rate has been further improved, and the production capacity ranks first in the world. In 2021, the keel revenue was 2.756 billion, accounting for 13.07%, with a growth rate of 40.32%, faster than that of gypsum board, which means that the company's strategy to improve the matching rate of keel to gypsum board will take effect quickly in 2021. With the sharp rise in the price of galvanized steel at the raw material end, the keel gross profit margin will decrease by 6.25 percentage points. In 2021, the company's keel production capacity will reach 488000 tons, ranking first in the world. With the expansion of scale advantage and the improvement of gypsum board matching rate, The pricing and profitability of the company's keel business will also be gradually enhanced.
Waterproof and coatings are firmly developing, but the profitability is damaged by the rise in the price of raw materials. In 2021, the company's waterproof business revenue was 3.871 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.17%, accounting for 18.36%, due to the sharp rise in the price of asphalt and other raw materials. The gross profit margin of waterproof business decreased by 10.34 percentage points. The company is committed to the development of waterproof and coating business. During the reporting period, Beixin waterproof Co., Ltd. and Beixin coating Co., Ltd. were established to be responsible for the integration of waterproof and coating business respectively. The waterproof business has ranked among the top three in China. The coating business has been transferred to 100% equity of longpai coating and 49% equity of Lighthouse coating, taking the lead in the establishment of China coating revival alliance.
Cash cow is still true, and high-quality development is on the way. In 2021, under the background of accelerating the development of waterproof, coating and other businesses and frequent real estate credit events, the company's net cash from operating activities reached 3.831 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 2 billion year-on-year, and the scale of accounts receivable increased by only 128 million, with a 2.39 percentage point increase from 106.32%. The nature of cash is still good, the company's weighted roe reached 19.94%, which has increased steadily, and high-quality development is still on the way.
Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) point of view: gypsum board has a stable market position, low cost and strong pricing power; Waterproof and keel provide growth; In the medium and long term, under the strategy of one body and two wings, gypsum board is the absolute leading brand to upgrade, further improve the proportion of medium and high-end products, further reflect the pricing power, and build a deep moat with cost advantage. The second growth curve of waterproof, keel and coating is clear: 1) light steel keel has strong coordination with gypsum board products, high coincidence between channels and customers, and the market space is higher than gypsum board. Although the supporting rate of Beixin keel is low, it started early and has brand and channel advantages. The company is increasing production capacity investment, customer cooperation and marketing. The medium and long-term production capacity planning is increased from 500000 tons to 1 million tons. It cooperates with leading real estate companies and top 100 decoration enterprises to strengthen the assessment of keel matching rate and channel sinking. 2) The non-standard products in the waterproof industry have large transfer space and low concentration. Beixin waterproof has the credit endorsement and financial strength of central enterprises, has the advantages of technology and R & D, and is expected to maintain high growth on the revenue side. Beixin has recently established a procurement alliance with Keshun and Karen, which is expected to complement each other's advantages, improve economy and reduce raw material fluctuations.
Profit forecast: gypsum board business maintains strong growth, and the second growth curve is clear. Since the demand recovery of the real estate industry is lower than expected and improvement still needs time, we lowered the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 and 23 years will be 4 billion (the former value is 4.7 billion) and 4.9 billion (the former value is 5.9 billion), corresponding to 12 or 10 times of PE. The company's profit and valuation have room to improve and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand of downstream industries has fallen sharply; Gypsum board prices fell sharply; Overseas expansion is less than expected; Keel business expansion is less than expected; The expansion of waterproof field is less than expected.
