\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 245 Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) )
In 2021, the company made a profit of 670 million yuan, which is in the middle of the performance forecast. The company achieved a revenue of 6.68 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 57%; Corresponding to Q4, the revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, an increase of 16% month on month. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 141%; Corresponding to Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 165 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1% month on month. The company's annual profit increase was mainly due to the strong growth in the demand of high-end lithium battery business. The profit of the company declined slightly in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the increase of inventory falling price loss provision and the loss of non core businesses such as the disposal of fixed assets.
The market demand for electric tools is strong, and the company continues to expand production to ensure high-speed growth. In 2021, China's output of electric tools was 272 million, an increase of 23% year-on-year. Driven by the demand for electric tools, the company shipped 390 million lithium battery products in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 66%, close to full production and sales. By the end of 2021, the company's lithium battery capacity will reach 700 million. In 2022, Huai'an phase I project is expected to start production in the fourth quarter, when the capacity will exceed 1.25 billion. We expect that under the continuous expansion of production capacity and strong customer demand, the company's lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 700720 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 80%.
With the rise of raw materials, the company actively negotiated prices to transmit cost pressure, and the improvement of product and customer structure is expected to increase profits. Under the pressure of the rising price of raw materials, the profitability of lithium battery link is under pressure. The company adopts the dynamic price adjustment mechanism. On the one hand, it actively shortens the negotiation cycle with customers outside China, on the other hand, it actively implements the price adjustment. The company cooperated closely with overseas customers such as Bosch, Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) Baide and TTI, and the proportion of overseas revenue increased steadily. The company has completed the research and development of 21700 batteries and is expected to achieve mass production with the production of Huai'an base. We expect that with the increase in the proportion of overseas customers and the continuous launch of new high rate batteries, the profitability is expected to continue to be optimized.
The metal logistics business and led business are developing steadily and are expected to contribute considerable profits in 2022. In 2021, the company's metal logistics business and led business revenue increased by more than 40% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, the metal logistics sector is expected to achieve better results under equity incentive. The LED business has completed product R & D, customer introduction and production equipment update, and is expected to enter the accelerated volume period.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The production progress is less than expected; The cost rise exceeded expectations.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The proportion of overseas customers of the company continues to increase, the product structure continues to be optimized, and the profitability is expected to improve steadily. Based on the smooth transmission of the company's costs and the marginal optimization of profitability brought about by the improvement of customers and product structure, we raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.066/17.672225 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast was 1.062/1.570 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023), the year-on-year growth rate will be 59 / 66 / 26% respectively, the diluted EPS will be 1.03/1.71/2.15 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 22 / 14 / 11 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
