\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Event: on March 23, 2022, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) released the annual report of 2021. In 21 years, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of 226225/4.132 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.1% / - 31.1%; 21q4 company realized operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of 63.500451 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.6% / - 50.5%.
Kitchen food revenue grew steadily. (1) By product, in 2021, the company's kitchen food / feed raw materials and oil technology / other products achieved revenue of RMB 141979/82.515/1.731 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.14% / + 13.83% / + 40.92%. (2) According to the sales mode, in 2021, the company's direct sales / distribution revenue reached 160198/66.026 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 22.41% / + 3.08%. In terms of the number of dealers, by the end of 2021, the company had 6121 dealers, an increase of 1024 compared with the end of 2020. (3) In terms of sales regions, the revenue within / outside China in 2021 was 221323/4.902 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 15.82% / + 27.90%.
Rising costs put pressure on gross profit margin. (1) The gross profit margin in 2021 was 8.18%, a year-on-year increase of -2.83pcts. The reasons for the decline of gross profit margin are as follows: ① cost side: the price of raw material soybean continued to rise in 2021, with a large increase. Based on the national soybean market price released by the National Bureau of statistics, the average price in 2021 is 14.5% higher than that in 2020. Although the company raised the price of some products, it can not fully cover the rise of raw material costs. ② Demand side: affected by the epidemic, consumption is relatively weak, and consumers are more in pursuit of cost performance, which affects the sales of medium and high-end kitchen products of the company. ③ Channel structure: due to the better control of the epidemic in China and the recovery of the catering market, the proportion of catering channel products with low gross profit margin increased. (2) In 2021 / 2021q4, the sales expense ratio of the company was 2.93% / 2.63% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.10pcts / - 1.77pcts. (3) Overall, the net profit margin of the company's sales in 2021 / 2021q4 was 1.98% / 0.73% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.39pcts / - 1.32pcts.
Actively explore the central kitchen business and look for new growth points. Expand the central kitchen production line, promote the "new food fashion" of food consumption, and build a Chinese food industrialized catering supply chain platform with grain staple food as the core. Fengchu central kitchen park will cover all kinds of businesses and products of the central kitchen. Relying on Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) own raw materials, products and channels, it is expected to become a new growth point of the company's business. At present, the company's Hangzhou central kitchen project has been put into operation, and the products are expected to be listed in the near future. The central kitchen projects in Chongqing, Langfang, Xi'an and other places are also under accelerated construction and will be put into operation in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: affected by the weather in South America and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, there may be upward pressure on soybean prices in 22 years, and the recovery trend of consumption in the future is still uncertain. We lowered the company's forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 20222023 to RMB 6.905/8.436 billion respectively (compared with the previous value of - 7.4% / - 5.4%), and introduced the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 to RMB 9.466 billion. The current share price is 39x / 32x / 29x corresponding to PE in 2022 / 23 / 24, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, hedging risk
